On Wednesday, May 24th I participated in a panel at my friend John Mauldin’s 20th annual investment conference. It was a pleasure speaking with my fellow panelists.
CHINA: RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES
LYRIC HUGHES HALE, LOUIS GAVE AND EMILY DE LA BRUYÈRE
MODERATOR: ED D’AGOSTINO
China is in a period of real, lasting change. The path China pursued to dramatically grow its economy has reached a dead end, creating a host of significant problems: population declines, concerns over "dual use" technologies, and government control. All are critical matters you need to understand to know what comes next for China.
We agreed on many things, but disagreed on others. Some key points from my remarks:
We have reached the end stage of American exceptionalism in world affairs, and Chinese economic exceptionalism.
China’s economic decline is real, structural, and will be impactful worldwide. Structural reforms were delayed too long.
The increase in the price of gold is due to Chinese buying, and is an inverse indicator of the health of the Chinese economy.
The yuan will not be allowed to devalue, since China is hoping to establish its currency as a global means of exchange.