❝ A risk of epic proportions.
— Rosemary Gibson, author of China Rx, on US reliance on foreign upstream materials for medicines, quoted in Goldman Sachs’ 2026 Investment Strategy Report

While rare earths have been in the spotlight, another critical supply chain is also at risk in the current geopolitical environment: medicines.

Our panel will examine vulnerabilities in pharmaceutical quality and supply in the US, and the broader policy and economic forces that have left critical medicines and medical devices increasingly exposed to disruption — with potential consequences for almost every American family. The conversation will also examine the history and current role of foreign dependence and how meaningful reforms could improve long-term resilience.

Why this matters

• China’s role in the pharmaceutical supply chain is not limited to finished pills. According to Rosemary Gibson’s 2026 Senate testimony, China controls roughly 90% of the global supply of certain key starting materials — the chemical inputs used to make active pharmaceutical ingredients, or APIs. (APIs are the components of medicines that produce the intended therapeutic effect.)

• That vulnerability extends beyond generics to the broader medicine supply chain, including antibiotics, hospital drugs, injectables, and medical devices.

Panelists

Lyric Hughes Hale is editor-in-chief of econVue and founder of the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative, a nonprofit research organization. She will moderate the panel and off-the-record audience discussion. A replay of the panelists’ remarks will be available to registered participants.

Panelists and participants will include industry experts such as David Johnson, economist and CEO of 4sight Health, a Chicago-based advisory company working at the intersection of healthcare strategy, economics, and innovation; and Marta E. Wosińska, PhD, Senior Fellow at the Center on Health Policy at the Brookings Institution. Additional panelists will be announced shortly.

👥 REGISTRATION

Date: Friday, July 10 | Time: 12–1 pm (CDT)

Please register in advance for this meeting:

Register

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing login information and suggested reading. This event is open to all subscribers.

About the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative:

Hale Strategic Resources Initiative

The official site of the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative, and the HSRI newsletter, supporting economic security and resiliency with a special focus on the American Midwest.

By Lyric Hughes Hale

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The Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing May 14-15, 2026

You are invited to an econVue virtual panel discussion on the upcoming Trump-Xi Summit, scheduled to take place in Beijing on May 14–15. The conversation will be moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale.

The meeting comes at a critical moment for US-China relations. Trade tensions, technology restrictions, rare earth dependencies, Taiwan, sanctions, and the widening geopolitical fallout from the Iran conflict are all converging ahead of the summit. Whether the meeting produces a genuine reset or merely a diplomatic pause, markets, policymakers, and allies will be watching closely for signs of how Washington and Beijing intend to manage competition in a more fragmented global economy.

👥 Panelists

Our panel will bring together three sharply informed perspectives on China: Christopher Balding, who spent much of his academic career in the PRC; Brian McCarthy, who analyzes China from a Wall Street and global macro perspective; and Eric Huang, Hale Strategic senior fellow, joining us from Taipei.

Christopher Balding is CEO of Siphtor, a financial data provider based in California, and a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He spent nine years at Peking University HSBC Business School in Shenzhen and later taught at Fulbright University Vietnam. His work focuses on China’s economy, financial markets, technology sector, and corporate governance. He is widely followed on X as @BaldingsWorld.

Brian McCarthy is the Managing Principal and Chief Strategist of Macrolens LLC. A Harvard-trained economist, he has held senior roles at Alliance Capital, AIG, Barclays, UBS, RBS, and Emerging Sovereign Group, where he managed a China-focused macro hedge fund. He founded Macrolens in 2018 to provide institutional investors with independent research on global macro trends, China, and US-China financial dynamics.

Eric Huang is a senior fellow at Hale Strategic and a recognized expert on US-China-Taiwan geopolitics. He previously represented Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party in Washington, DC, where he worked at the intersection of cross-strait relations, US policy, and Taiwan’s domestic political debate. He is frequently quoted in leading global media, including The Economist, BBC, and Bloomberg. He holds degrees from Johns Hopkins SAIS, Harvard Kennedy School, and MIT.

Lyric Hughes Hale is editor-in-chief of econVue and host of The Hale Report. A longtime observer of the Chinese economy and US-China relations, she will moderate the panel and audience Q&A.

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↳ Subscriber Registration Link

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💬 What we are seeing is not the end of globalization, but the emergence of a new geostrategic system of alliances—more connected, not less.

If you missed our panel last week, or want to revisit it in light of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington this week –as well as the postponement of the Trump-Xi Summit, the replay of our March 11, 2026 panel is posted above.

Our panel asked a central question: Are we witnessing the emergence of a new Monroe Doctrine, and what are its geographic boundaries? Panelists include Dr. R. Evan Ellis, Dr. Joshua W. Walker, and econVue Senior Editor Eric Huang.

Why This Matters Now

Today, President Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as markets and policymaker reassess global risk. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force is one of the most capable naval forces in the world, underscoring the strategic weight of the US-Japan alliance.

US actions in Mexico and Venezuela, and the escalating crisis with Iran, could have profound implications for security strategy and trade across Latin America and the Indo-Pacific—including Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

Evan Ellis (Latin America)

“This administration increasingly sees engagement in the Western Hemisphere not as co-development, but as an extension of U.S. homeland security.

Joshua Walker (Japan)

“Japan is our canary in the coal mine—no country needs the U.S. alliance more, but none is watching its limits more closely.

Eric Huang (Taiwan)

“Economic security is no longer a supporting pillar—it is the foundation of U.S. global strategy, and that is where Taiwan becomes indispensable.

Governments across Latin America, Japan, and Taiwan are reassessing assumptions about sovereignty, deterrence, and alliance commitments as the implications of recent events ripple across both the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific. Recent developments are sending geopolitical shockwaves far beyond the regions directly involved, and China’s leadership is no doubt recalibrating its options after US strikes in Iran.

Are we seeing the early contours of a new Monroe Doctrine in US strategic thinking — one that extends beyond the Western Hemisphere — as Washington navigates a more contested global order?

Introductory remarks by our speakers were recorded, but the Q&A session was off the record.

↳ Panelists

R. Evan Ellis
Research Professor of Latin American Studies at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, specializing in China’s role in the Western Hemisphere.

Joshua W. Walker
President & CEO of Japan Society; former Eurasia Group executive and U.S. government official focused on alliances and Indo-Pacific strategy.

Eric Huang
Geopolitical strategist and econVue Senior Editor specializing in US–China–Taiwan relations and strategic technology competition.

It was a pleasure moderating this panel. My thanks to our panelists, and to our audience, who posed excellent questions. Join us next time to be part of the discussion.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief, econVue

^📍Chicago

econVue is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Featuring Dr. R. Evan Ellis, Dr. Joshua W. Walker, and econVue senior editor Eric Huang | March 11th

Why this matters…

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Iran Update: econVue Panel Discussion (Replay)

As war looms and events unfold in the Middle East, econVue convened a Chicago-based group of economists, commentators, and so…

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If you missed our virtual deep dive by leading thinkers on one of the most consequential financial innovations of our time, enjoy this replay. Want to learn more? Recommended readings from our panelists are listed below.

📌 Subscribe by Jan 20th to secure your subscriber discount and attend our next panel discussion on Iran on Mon Jan 19th at 10 am CST.

The Core Question

Are stablecoins reshaping the plumbing of money and banking, and what does that mean for traditional banks, regulators, and everyday payments?

Stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies — have rapidly moved from crypto fringe to systemically relevant financial infrastructure, offering improved settlement times and new payment capabilities. In 2025, regulatory breakthroughs such as the GENIUS Act established the first US federal framework for stablecoin issuance under trusted collateral rules.

At the same time, stablecoin issuers have become major holders of US Treasuries, giving them real influence in safe-asset markets and placing them at the intersection of banking liquidity, monetary policy, and global payment systems. As banks, fintech firms, and regulators increasingly converge around stablecoins, early 2026 the right moment to take stock of what comes next.

↳ Panelists

SPECIAL GUEST

Gina Pieters

Gina Pieters is and economist and consultant specializing in research on the digital economy and cross-border macro and financial policy issues related to decentralized digital assets, financial infrastructure, stablecoins, and CBDCs.

^📍Chicago

On the integration of stablecoins and the global banking system

^📍Chicago

On the functioning of stablecoins and payment systems

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

Read more

On Nov 18, econVue convened panelists form Washington, Sydney, Taipei, and Chicago to examine the physical materials, including energy that are the foundation of the global economy— at a moment when globalization is giving way to mobilization.

The discussion explored AI’s massive physical footprint, mineral dependence, Indo-Pacific security dynamics, and the Middle East’s emerging role in AI supply chains. It was a fast-paced, information-packed hour. Highlights are below— I believe that listening to this panel will expand the knowledge base even of experts in the field.

• We also announced the launch of the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative (HSRI), a new platform dedicated to rebuilding US industrial capacity and strengthening trusted supply networks across the Indo-Pacific. Follow us for more details, coming soon!

• If you missed it, don’t forget to read panelist Karim Pakravan’s new essay, A New Generation of Power, AI and the Future of the Middle East — a deeper dive into the geopolitical and energy dynamics shaping AI.

• And just a note: as always, questions from the audience are considered off the record and are not included in the video. Join us live next time!

💬 𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Moderator:

Editor-in- Chief, econVue

📍Chicago

Panel Highlights

Mark P. Mills — The Physics Behind the Future

Mark Mills opened by grounding the conversation in physical reality: AI is driving an unprecedented surge in demand for electricity, minerals, and industrial infrastructure. Gigawatt-scale data centers now under construction in the US require more steel and concrete than skyscrapers—and consume twenty times more annual energy than a comparable number of cars. Despite trillions spent on renewables, global reliance on oil, gas, and coal remains above 80% and is rising. Minerals, not ideology, are the binding constraint on any energy transition.

Eleanor Shiori Hughes — Alliances Without Treaties

Eleanor Hughes highlighted deepening coordination between Japan, Australia, and the US around critical minerals, semiconductor security, and regional defense. Japan’s new leadership has taken a sharper line on Taiwan, increasing friction with Beijing. Both Tokyo and Canberra view rare earths and semiconductor resilience as national-security imperatives. The region is coalescing—not through new treaties, but through shared strategic necessity.

Mark Roeder — The Arrival of Embodied AI

Mark Roeder emphasized that AI’s next leap is not digital but physical—robots, multimodal systems, and manufacturing processes that merge software with hardware. China is positioned to dominate this shift, just as it did electric vehicles, because it controls the integrated supply chains. Australia, meanwhile, is reassessing its role, recognizing that its mineral base and strategic geography make it a critical partner in this new industrial era.

Eric Huang — Taiwan at the Center of Global Security

Speaking from Taipei, Eric Huang underscored Taiwan’s irreplaceable role in global semiconductor manufacturing. While the US pushes for diversification, Taiwan fears losing too much capacity abroad—but understands that risk-sharing is essential. Taiwan’s engineering talent, manufacturing discipline, and tool-integration ecosystem cannot be replicated quickly. As AI’s energy and material demands grow, Taiwan sits at the geopolitical center of the global economy.

Karim Pakravan — The Gulf States Reposition Themselves

Karim Pakravan explained how Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are pursuing influence by investing in AI infrastructure, energy-intensive industries, and minerals. They offer cheap energy and political flexibility—but lack skilled labor. With global investment shifting toward private credit, the scale of needed infrastructure raises new financial-stability risks. Uranium, long ignored, may emerge as one of the decade’s most strategic resources.

🔑 Key Takeaways

• AI is physical, not virtual. Its infrastructure demands vast energy, land, minerals, and capital.

• Minerals—not technology—are the bottleneck for energy transitions and electrification.

• China controls 50–95% of refining for many critical minerals.

• Japan and Australia are aligning more directly with the US on supply-chain security.

• Taiwan remains the semiconductor center of gravity, essential to AI and global economic stability.

• The Middle East seeks a new role in supply chains, blending capital, energy, and geopolitics.

• Uranium is returning to the center of strategic planning as nuclear capacity grows.

• Financing is shifting from traditional banking to private credit, increasing systemic risk.

Suggested econVue Stories on this Subject

❗ Registration is closing soon-we are almost at capacity. Please see link below.

🔗 Link to Discussion Papers

In advance of our panel discussion tomorrow at 4 pm CDT please find the agenda for this weekend's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and all associated papers and handouts: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/2025

On Monday afternoon, we will be discussing these presentations, and what they could mean for the Fed decision in September. Several deal with AI--one concludes AI has not yet had any effect on employment. I think you will particularly enjoy Google exec Ruth Porat's speech, also centered on AI.

While the media at Jackson Hole primarily focuses on the speech by the Fed Chair, which is also included, I always find the Symposium presentations hugely useful—and indicative of future policy directions.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

A Policy Pivot after Jackson Hole?

❝ With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, 2025 Jackson Hole Speech

Convening just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals?

I just spoke with our panelist Mike Lewis:

❝ It’s not over yet. If we get a really firm jobs number for August, I think there is a 35% chance there will be no rate cut in September.

—Michael Lewis, Freemarkets, Inc.

What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic at Jackson Hole this year focuses on employment: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy”.

Join us on Monday to discuss what’s next

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background (recent articles by our panelists)

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

Mark Roeder:

Karim Pakravan:

Random Access Economics

Global Financial and Emerging Markets Weekly Update

Quote of the Week: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” Fed Chair Jay Powell…

Read more

a year ago · 1 like · Karim Pakravan

Michele Wucker:

The Gray Rhino Wrangler

The Debt Gray Rhino Continued: Can We Grow Our Way Out?

We started this series with an overview of the US national debt gray rhino: obvious, already trampling us, widely discussed -yet still not adequately addressed…

Read more

a year ago · 2 likes · Michele Wucker

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

❗ Reminder to econVue subscribers to register for our next panel—link below

A Policy Pivot after Jackson Hole?

❝ With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, 2025 Jackson Hole Speech

Convening just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals?

I just spoke with our panelist Mike Lewis:

❝ It’s not over yet. If we get a really firm jobs number for August, I think there is a 35% chance there will be no rate cut in September.

—Michael Lewis, Freemarkets, Inc.

What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic at Jackson Hole this year focuses on employment: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy”.

Join us on Monday to discuss what’s next

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background (recent articles by our panelists)

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

Mark Roeder:

Karim Pakravan:

Random Access Economics

Global Financial and Emerging Markets Weekly Update

Quote of the Week: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” Fed Chair Jay Powell…

Read more

a year ago · 1 like · Karim Pakravan

Michele Wucker:

The Gray Rhino Wrangler

The Debt Gray Rhino Continued: Can We Grow Our Way Out?

We started this series with an overview of the US national debt gray rhino: obvious, already trampling us, widely discussed -yet still not adequately addressed…

Read more

a year ago · 2 likes · Michele Wucker

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

❗ Reminder to econVue subscribers to register for our next panel—link below

What's Next After Jackson Hole?

Just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals? What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic of the fabled Jackson Hole Symposium this year will focus on employment. As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

A Tour d’Horizon

Elections across Asia Pacific are over—but what comes next?

This panel explores the economic implications of pivotal elections across the Asia-Pacific region. From Japan’s rightward shift to India’s contested mandate, Taiwan’s failed recall efforts, and Australia’s status quo government, our experts analyze what political transitions mean for regional stability, trade, investment, and US strategy.

The panel features econVue contributors Marsha Vande Berg and Saliya Weerakoon who shared their insights on the Indian general election in May, along with regular contributors econVue fellow Eleanor Shiori Hughes (Japan & Australia) and Chicago economist Karim Pakravan. Eric Huang will discuss the recent victory for the KMT in Taiwan. Rick Katz will share his views on the Japanese election results. (See panelist bios below.)

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Weds, July 30th at 10 am CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

^{📍Washington}

^{📍Washington & Taiwan}

^{📍New York}

^📍Chicago

^{📍San Francisco}

^{📍Sri Lanka}

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

Introduction

Our panel last week, as the United States reached its 249th year, agreed that there are many reasons to celebrate. Job numbers remain strong despite headlines about layoffs and automation. Markets are booming—touching record highs in both traditional and new asset classes. Inflation seems under control, oil prices are falling, and the specter of nuclear escalation in Iran has been contained, at least for now. Even the US-China trade war appears to have cooled. Today’s CPI numbers were pretty much as expected.

My takeaway

A common thread in our discussion: trust. US partners and rivals alike are unsure of policy direction in Washington, and so are behaving cautiously. Although the real economy and markets in the US are giving President Trump the benefit of the doubt, our allies are confused. An interesting sidelight is that the best-performing asset is Bitcoin, which is a trustless cryptocurrency. Please see new posts by econVue contributors on these subjects below.

Upcoming panels will focus on Asia Pacific geoeconomic issues. Watch your inbox for future dates.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

Discussed on this Panel

Our panel of global experts assessed the resilience of the American economy—and the risks it now faces from rising tariffs, falling trust, and fiscal disarray:
• Marsha Vande Berg (Pension and Sovereign Wealth Advisor)
• Karim Pakravan (Economist, Random Access Economics)
• Gordon Parrish (Free Markets Inc.)
• Michele Wucker (Author of The Gray Rhino)
• Eric Huang (Taiwan & Semiconductor Specialist at Hale Strategic)
• Special Guest: Joel Ross (Investor and Author of the Ross Rant)

⧈ Insights

Markets Are Rising—But So Is Risk
Despite record market highs and falling oil prices, panelists warned of fundamental fragility masked by short-term optimism.

Trust Is the New Indicator
Both Marsha Vande Berg and Karim Pakravan emphasized that erosion of investor trust—especially among foreign bondholders—could trigger deeper instability.

Trump’s Tariff Strategy Is Reshaping Trade
Gordon Parrish described bipartisan support for a harder line on China, calling it a rare point of consensus that could escalate.

Taiwan: Strategic and Symbolic
Eric Huang warned that economic decoupling and military pressure on Taiwan is not just about semiconductors—“it’s about trust.”

What’s Next for the Fed?
With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, speculation swirled about his replacement. Could Trump tap Bessent to lead both the Fed and Treasury? Rumors have circulated that Scott Bessent could be tapped for a dual-role appointment as both Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary. But such a move would violate the 1935 Banking Act, which explicitly separates the two offices to safeguard US monetary independence.

❝ Resilience is the new catchword. Investors aren’t leaving dollar assets—they’re diversifying away from concentration risk.

❝ The word that kept rolling around in my head was trust. Bottom line, I think that’s what we’re seeing reflected in both markets and institutions.”

❝ We’re already on a knife’s edge. If the foreigners don’t trust us to manage our treasury market well, they’ll just stay away.

❝ We’re going to end up with fairly high tariffs—and that’s going to put pressure on the macro economy and accelerate the ‘sell America’ trend.

Gordon Parrish

❝ The entire Republican spectrum—mercantilists, free traders, neoconservatives—are all united in their desire to take down China.

❝ Powell will stay in control until May. Whoever comes next will just be Powell with another face.

❝ In the U.S. market, tariffs as a percentage of the final thing that consumers pay are just very small. They don’t really affect our services. They don’t affect the transportation, the storage, the marketing, the intermediate markups. It’s just the cost of goods sold at the border. And that’s not a big amount.

Michele Wucker

❝ International opinion of China has now surpassed the US—that has flipped. China is trying to capitalize on this shift.

❝ They were surprisingly optimistic about Trump in Beijing—perhaps because they feel they can negotiate with him.

Eric Huang

❝ Taiwan’s role is not just about chips. It’s about trust. If you want to break the global economy, you start by breaking Taiwan.
❝ Strategic decoupling has become a race—not just for economic security but for legitimacy in global governance.

Joel Ross

❝ The market isn’t pricing in the risk. Investors are chasing performance, not preparing for disruption.

❝ We’ve seen this movie before—people believe the Fed will step in no matter what. But if rates stay high, balance sheets will be exposed.

What to Watch Next

• July inflation numbers and their impact on Fed sentiment
• Reactions to new tariffs across Asia and Europe
• Shifts in foreign holdings of US Treasuries—are we nearing a tipping point?
• Growing divergence between equity market exuberance and bond market caution
• Whether the White House floats formal nominations for Fed or Treasury posts—and how the markets react

⧉ Backgrounder & Recommended Reading

Polling & Sentiment on the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill)
• KFF Poll: Views of the Bill
• Axios: Trump’s Bill & Public Support
• Kiplinger: Why Most Americans Say It Isn’t So Beautiful

By Our Panelists

• Karim Pakravan: The Specters Haunting the Global Economy

📬 Subscribe to stay informed. We’ll continue to track global risks, investor behavior, and policy decisions in real time.

Expert Voices. Global Focus. Informed Perspective.

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to attend our next panel discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

Our panel discussion was led by economist Karim Pakravan. We were joined by econVue Fellow and defense ana…

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This wide-ranging discussion revealed that the global tariff détente may be less a resolution than a pause—one shaped more by political maneuvering than lasting policy consensus. From China’s “long g…

Read more

March 21, 2025
Hosted by econVue

As the world welcomed the first day of spring, econVue convened a panel of global experts for a far-reaching discussion on the state of the global economy. The panel explored everything from monetary policy to artificial intelligence, from demographic decline in Japan to strategic realignments in Asia and the Middle East. A pivotal question during this discussion: Is AI driving productivity or is its promise overhyped?

Moderated by econVue Editor-in-Chief Lyric Hughes Hale, our conversation included:

• Richard Katz, Japan Economy Watch

• Eleanor Hughes, non-resident fellow at econVue, Asian geopolitics

• Narimon Safavi, NPR commentator on global culture and Iran

• Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics, Northwestern University

• Gordon Parrish, senior economic analyst at Freemarket, Inc

• Paul Summerville, commentator on Canada and Japan’s financial industry

• Mark Roeder, Author and head of strategy at Hale Strategic, AI expert

• Collin Canright, Fintech Rising and Chicago Payments Forum

  ---

↳ Key Takeaways

• Japan’s Economic Realities
  Inflation in Japan is driven largely by food and energy imports—not by robust domestic demand. Real wages are stagnant, and household consumption is falling.
  (Richard Katz)

• U.S. Slowdown, Not Recession (Yet)
  Despite worsening sentiment, a broad-based recession is unlikely without a trillion-dollar GDP contraction. Government expenditures and cuts are not reflected in GDP.
  (Robert Gordon)

• India’s New Strategic Posture
  India is quietly favoring Russia over China on the global stage—reflecting a recalibrated nonaligned strategy.
  (Eleanor Hughes)

• The Hidden Middle East Story
  While headlines scream conflict, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China are building economic bridges, not walls.
  (Narimon Safavi)

• AI’s Real Disruption Still to Come
  Productivity gains from ChatGPT are marginal; real disruption will arrive with humanoid robots entering both homes and workplaces.
  (Mark Roeder)

• Japan’s Demographics as Destiny
  Japan’s aging population and declining workforce define its long-term trajectory more than any central bank action.
  (Paul Summerville)

• AI in Payments: Proceed with Caution
  AI copilots are replacing Google for many, but few are ready to let bots manage their bank accounts—yet.
  (Collin Canright)

↳ Featured Insights

“Japan’s inflation is misleading. Core prices are low—the real issue is stagnant wages.”
— Richard Katz

“No recession yet, but we’re in a slowdown. Sentiment has dropped sharply.”
— Robert Gordon

“India is recalibrating. Fewer Chinese delegates, more Russians—it matters.”
— Eleanor Hughes

“The real action isn’t war—it’s regional economic integration led by China.”
— Narimon Safavi

“ChatGPT won’t change the world. Robots that fold laundry might.”
— Mark Roeder

“Demographics are Japan’s defining constraint. It’s not about policy—it’s about people.”
— Paul Summerville

“AI is improving workflows, not just search—but trust in automation is still a major hurdle.”
— Collin Canright

⧉ Recommended Reading

1. Robert Gordon cited his recent paper, How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators? NBER Working Paper, Oct 2024.

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2. 📊 Panel slides presented by Richard Katz:

   

   Katz Econvue March 21, 2025 Japan

   321KB ∙ PDF file

   Download

   Download

3. Richard Katz is also proud to announce the Japanese version of his book: The Contest for Japan’s Future.

   

4. econVue producer Sam Fu recommends this video on humanoid robots:

5. Lyric Hughes Hale referenced this data on mortgage refinancing:

   

Now on econVue

↳ 🎙️ Transcript and Executive Summary

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↳ Key Takeaways from our 2025 PreVue Panel

Our virtual panel explored highlights from our 2025 PreVue, a collection of forecasts by econVue contributors and special guests.

We enjoyed a lively discussion about the critical geoeconomic and technological events shaping 2025 and their practical implications. Please join us next time!

↳ Topics Discussed

AI, energy, the Middle East, jobs, tariffs, inflation, cryptocurrencies, robots, the US political transition, and more from experts in their fields.

↳ Video Replay

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65 minutes ∙ 20 registrants
⮑ Ended MON NOV 11, 2024 5:05 PM CDT (Chicago)

🚫 This informal discussion was off the record, but for those who could not attend, we created a summary of key points.

On Nov 11, 2024 we held a panel discussion with econVue contributors, subscribers, and members of the Chicago Financial Forum (CFF). My co-host for this event was Michael Lewis, economist at Free Market Inc, and co-founder of the CFF. We were joined by econVue contributors internationally for a lively and informative dialogue.

Many had been surprised by Donald Trump’s decisive election victory the previous week, on Nov 5th. The outcome seems to reflect a broader trend: for the first time in 120 years, all incumbents in major elections worldwide have been defeated—except India’s Narendra Modi. As the global economy continues to emerge from the effects of the pandemic, it is clear that voters are demanding change. What will this mean for monetary policy, fiscal spending, and markets?

We explored the potential economic implications of President Trump's reelection, covering topics like inflation, Ai’s impact on labor, immigration, and geopolitics in the Middle East, China and Taiwan, and Ukraine. The discussion included potential cabinet-level appointments, Elon Musk’s influence in the new administration, and the recent surge in cryptocurrency valuations.

Key takeaways

Leadership changes have network effects. New relationships can create fresh opportunities—or introduce new risks. While domestic divisions persist in many countries, technology is advancing regardless, with unknown consequences for labor, social mobility, and markets. In the coming weeks and months, and we will watch for clues about the future, and continue these conversations to harness collective wisdom.

Thank you to our panel and our audience, whose thoughtful, off-the-record contributions are always deeply appreciated. And a special thanks to guest panelist, Robert Madsen, Senior Economist at Hale Strategic.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

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👥 Panelists

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

^{📍San Francisco}

◻ Discussed on this Panel

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