💬 What we are seeing is not the end of globalization, but the emergence of a new geostrategic system of alliances—more connected, not less.

If you missed our panel last week, or want to revisit it in light of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Washington this week –as well as the postponement of the Trump-Xi Summit, the replay of our March 11, 2026 panel is posted above.

Our panel asked a central question: Are we witnessing the emergence of a new Monroe Doctrine, and what are its geographic boundaries? Panelists include Dr. R. Evan Ellis, Dr. Joshua W. Walker, and econVue Senior Editor Eric Huang.

Why This Matters Now

Today, President Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as markets and policymaker reassess global risk. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force is one of the most capable naval forces in the world, underscoring the strategic weight of the US-Japan alliance.

US actions in Mexico and Venezuela, and the escalating crisis with Iran, could have profound implications for security strategy and trade across Latin America and the Indo-Pacific—including Taiwan.

Key Takeaways

Evan Ellis (Latin America)

“This administration increasingly sees engagement in the Western Hemisphere not as co-development, but as an extension of U.S. homeland security.

Joshua Walker (Japan)

“Japan is our canary in the coal mine—no country needs the U.S. alliance more, but none is watching its limits more closely.

Eric Huang (Taiwan)

“Economic security is no longer a supporting pillar—it is the foundation of U.S. global strategy, and that is where Taiwan becomes indispensable.

Governments across Latin America, Japan, and Taiwan are reassessing assumptions about sovereignty, deterrence, and alliance commitments as the implications of recent events ripple across both the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific. Recent developments are sending geopolitical shockwaves far beyond the regions directly involved, and China’s leadership is no doubt recalibrating its options after US strikes in Iran.

Are we seeing the early contours of a new Monroe Doctrine in US strategic thinking — one that extends beyond the Western Hemisphere — as Washington navigates a more contested global order?

Introductory remarks by our speakers were recorded, but the Q&A session was off the record.

↳ Panelists

R. Evan Ellis
Research Professor of Latin American Studies at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, specializing in China’s role in the Western Hemisphere.

Joshua W. Walker
President & CEO of Japan Society; former Eurasia Group executive and U.S. government official focused on alliances and Indo-Pacific strategy.

Eric Huang
Geopolitical strategist and econVue Senior Editor specializing in US–China–Taiwan relations and strategic technology competition.

It was a pleasure moderating this panel. My thanks to our panelists, and to our audience, who posed excellent questions. Join us next time to be part of the discussion.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief, econVue

^📍Chicago

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Featuring Dr. R. Evan Ellis, Dr. Joshua W. Walker, and econVue senior editor Eric Huang | March 11th

Why this matters now:
US actions in Mexico and Venezuela, and the escalating crisis with Iran, could have profound implications for security strategy and trade across Latin America to the Indo-Pacific—with major implications for the upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing.

There is much to discuss, and although events are still unfolding, this seemed like an appropriate moment for an econVue subscriber panel discussion.

Governments across Latin America, Japan, and Taiwan are reassessing assumptions about sovereignty, deterrence, and alliance commitments as the implications of recent events ripple across both the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific. Recent developments are sending geopolitical shockwaves far beyond the regions directly involved, and China’s leadership is no doubt recalibrating its options after US strikes in Iran.

Are we seeing the early contours of a new Monroe Doctrine in US strategic thinking — one that extends beyond the Western Hemisphere — as Washington navigates a more contested global order?

This discussion will explore the intersection of security policy, geoeconomics, and state capacity, including the role of non-state actors, supply chains, and strategic deterrence.

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Wednesday, March 11

• 11:00 AM Chicago / 12:00 PM Eastern

• 📍 Virtual Event – Zoom & Substack

• Attendance is limited to encourage active participation.

  ---

↳ Registration

💬 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with details on how to join the call. Please register prior to the beginning of the call. Paid subscribers will receive priority access to the live discussion and Q&A.

Register now

The panel recording and written recap will be published on econVue.

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the live discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Panelists

R. Evan Ellis

Research Professor of Latin American Studies at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, specializing in China’s expanding economic and strategic presence in Latin America, regional security dynamics, and transnational organized crime. Dr. Ellis is widely recognized for his research on China–Latin America relations, including Chinese investment, infrastructure projects, and political engagement across the Western Hemisphere. He is the author of multiple books and frequently briefs US government and international policy institutions on strategic developments in the region.

Joshua W. Walker

Joshua W. Walker, PhD became President & CEO of Japan Society in December 2019. Previously, he worked at Eurasia Group, the world’s leading political risk analysis firm, where he served as global head of strategic initiatives and Japan in the Office of the President. Before joining the private sector, he worked in numerous roles at various U.S. government agencies, including the State Department and the Defense Department. He is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and professor of leadership and the American presidency at George Mason University and the Reagan Foundation

Geopolitical strategist and commentator specializing in US–China–Taiwan relations, Indo-Pacific security, and strategic technology competition. Eric has extensive experience in Washington, advancing Taiwan’s policy engagement with the United States and has held fellowships at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Fudan University. Frequently cited in global media—including Time, The Economist, the BBC, and Bloomberg—he advises governments, institutions, and investors on geopolitical risk and strategic planning.

Moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale, econVue Editor-in-Chief

↳ Key Questions

• Are we witnessing the emergence of a new Monroe Doctrine in US strategic thinking — one that extends beyond the Western Hemisphere?

• How are Latin American governments interpreting recent US actions in Venezuela and Iran, and what does this mean for sovereignty and state capacity in the region?

• How is the US–Japan alliance interpreting instability in the Middle East, and what implications might this have for Indo-Pacific security planning?

• What does the current environment mean for Taiwan’s security and the resilience of global semiconductor supply chains?

• As geopolitical tensions rise across multiple regions, how might these developments reshape alliances, trade routes, and economic policy?

⧉ Background Reading

Additional recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees.

1. R. Evan Ellis

Evan Ellis on Latin America and the Caribbean

Evan Ellis - Strategic Implications of the War in Iran for Latin America

Dear Colleagues…

Read more

a month ago · 1 like · R. Evan Ellis, PhD

• China’s Strategic Expansion in Latin America
• Organized Crime and State Capacity in the Western Hemisphere

2. Joshua W Walker

• Alliance at a Crossroads (同盟の転機)
  This new book is a review of the evolving U.S.–Japan alliance and strategic turning points in the Indo-Pacific.

• The U.S.–Japan Alliance in a Changing Indo-Pacific

• Japan’s Strategic Role in a Fragmenting Global Order
  

3. Eric Huang

• After the Storm: China’s Military Purges and the Rise of a Mobilization State

See you soon!

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

Iran Update: econVue Panel Discussion (Replay)

As war looms and events unfold in the Middle East, econVue convened a Chicago-based group of economists, commentators, and so…

Read more

If you missed our virtual deep dive by leading thinkers on one of the most consequential financial innovations of our time, enjoy this replay. Want to learn more? Recommended readings from our panelists are listed below.

📌 Subscribe by Jan 20th to secure your subscriber discount and attend our next panel discussion on Iran on Mon Jan 19th at 10 am CST.

The Core Question

Are stablecoins reshaping the plumbing of money and banking, and what does that mean for traditional banks, regulators, and everyday payments?

Stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies — have rapidly moved from crypto fringe to systemically relevant financial infrastructure, offering improved settlement times and new payment capabilities. In 2025, regulatory breakthroughs such as the GENIUS Act established the first US federal framework for stablecoin issuance under trusted collateral rules.

At the same time, stablecoin issuers have become major holders of US Treasuries, giving them real influence in safe-asset markets and placing them at the intersection of banking liquidity, monetary policy, and global payment systems. As banks, fintech firms, and regulators increasingly converge around stablecoins, early 2026 the right moment to take stock of what comes next.

↳ Panelists

SPECIAL GUEST

Gina Pieters

Gina Pieters is and economist and consultant specializing in research on the digital economy and cross-border macro and financial policy issues related to decentralized digital assets, financial infrastructure, stablecoins, and CBDCs.

^📍Chicago

On the integration of stablecoins and the global banking system

^📍Chicago

On the functioning of stablecoins and payment systems

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

Read more

On Nov 18, econVue convened panelists form Washington, Sydney, Taipei, and Chicago to examine the physical materials, including energy that are the foundation of the global economy— at a moment when globalization is giving way to mobilization.

The discussion explored AI’s massive physical footprint, mineral dependence, Indo-Pacific security dynamics, and the Middle East’s emerging role in AI supply chains. It was a fast-paced, information-packed hour. Highlights are below— I believe that listening to this panel will expand the knowledge base even of experts in the field.

• We also announced the launch of the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative (HSRI), a new platform dedicated to rebuilding US industrial capacity and strengthening trusted supply networks across the Indo-Pacific. Follow us for more details, coming soon!

• If you missed it, don’t forget to read panelist Karim Pakravan’s new essay, A New Generation of Power, AI and the Future of the Middle East — a deeper dive into the geopolitical and energy dynamics shaping AI.

• And just a note: as always, questions from the audience are considered off the record and are not included in the video. Join us live next time!

💬 𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Moderator:

Editor-in- Chief, econVue

📍Chicago

Panel Highlights

Mark P. Mills — The Physics Behind the Future

Mark Mills opened by grounding the conversation in physical reality: AI is driving an unprecedented surge in demand for electricity, minerals, and industrial infrastructure. Gigawatt-scale data centers now under construction in the US require more steel and concrete than skyscrapers—and consume twenty times more annual energy than a comparable number of cars. Despite trillions spent on renewables, global reliance on oil, gas, and coal remains above 80% and is rising. Minerals, not ideology, are the binding constraint on any energy transition.

Eleanor Shiori Hughes — Alliances Without Treaties

Eleanor Hughes highlighted deepening coordination between Japan, Australia, and the US around critical minerals, semiconductor security, and regional defense. Japan’s new leadership has taken a sharper line on Taiwan, increasing friction with Beijing. Both Tokyo and Canberra view rare earths and semiconductor resilience as national-security imperatives. The region is coalescing—not through new treaties, but through shared strategic necessity.

Mark Roeder — The Arrival of Embodied AI

Mark Roeder emphasized that AI’s next leap is not digital but physical—robots, multimodal systems, and manufacturing processes that merge software with hardware. China is positioned to dominate this shift, just as it did electric vehicles, because it controls the integrated supply chains. Australia, meanwhile, is reassessing its role, recognizing that its mineral base and strategic geography make it a critical partner in this new industrial era.

Eric Huang — Taiwan at the Center of Global Security

Speaking from Taipei, Eric Huang underscored Taiwan’s irreplaceable role in global semiconductor manufacturing. While the US pushes for diversification, Taiwan fears losing too much capacity abroad—but understands that risk-sharing is essential. Taiwan’s engineering talent, manufacturing discipline, and tool-integration ecosystem cannot be replicated quickly. As AI’s energy and material demands grow, Taiwan sits at the geopolitical center of the global economy.

Karim Pakravan — The Gulf States Reposition Themselves

Karim Pakravan explained how Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are pursuing influence by investing in AI infrastructure, energy-intensive industries, and minerals. They offer cheap energy and political flexibility—but lack skilled labor. With global investment shifting toward private credit, the scale of needed infrastructure raises new financial-stability risks. Uranium, long ignored, may emerge as one of the decade’s most strategic resources.

🔑 Key Takeaways

• AI is physical, not virtual. Its infrastructure demands vast energy, land, minerals, and capital.

• Minerals—not technology—are the bottleneck for energy transitions and electrification.

• China controls 50–95% of refining for many critical minerals.

• Japan and Australia are aligning more directly with the US on supply-chain security.

• Taiwan remains the semiconductor center of gravity, essential to AI and global economic stability.

• The Middle East seeks a new role in supply chains, blending capital, energy, and geopolitics.

• Uranium is returning to the center of strategic planning as nuclear capacity grows.

• Financing is shifting from traditional banking to private credit, increasing systemic risk.

Suggested econVue Stories on this Subject

❗ Registration is closing soon-we are almost at capacity. Please see link below.

🔗 Link to Discussion Papers

In advance of our panel discussion tomorrow at 4 pm CDT please find the agenda for this weekend's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and all associated papers and handouts: https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/2025

On Monday afternoon, we will be discussing these presentations, and what they could mean for the Fed decision in September. Several deal with AI--one concludes AI has not yet had any effect on employment. I think you will particularly enjoy Google exec Ruth Porat's speech, also centered on AI.

While the media at Jackson Hole primarily focuses on the speech by the Fed Chair, which is also included, I always find the Symposium presentations hugely useful—and indicative of future policy directions.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

A Policy Pivot after Jackson Hole?

❝ With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, 2025 Jackson Hole Speech

Convening just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals?

I just spoke with our panelist Mike Lewis:

❝ It’s not over yet. If we get a really firm jobs number for August, I think there is a 35% chance there will be no rate cut in September.

—Michael Lewis, Freemarkets, Inc.

What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic at Jackson Hole this year focuses on employment: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy”.

Join us on Monday to discuss what’s next

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background (recent articles by our panelists)

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

Mark Roeder:

Karim Pakravan:

Random Access Economics

Global Financial and Emerging Markets Weekly Update

Quote of the Week: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” Fed Chair Jay Powell…

Read more

7 months ago · 1 like · Karim Pakravan

Michele Wucker:

The Gray Rhino Wrangler

The Debt Gray Rhino Continued: Can We Grow Our Way Out?

We started this series with an overview of the US national debt gray rhino: obvious, already trampling us, widely discussed -yet still not adequately addressed…

Read more

8 months ago · 2 likes · Michele Wucker

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

❗ Reminder to econVue subscribers to register for our next panel—link below

A Policy Pivot after Jackson Hole?

❝ With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, 2025 Jackson Hole Speech

Convening just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals?

I just spoke with our panelist Mike Lewis:

❝ It’s not over yet. If we get a really firm jobs number for August, I think there is a 35% chance there will be no rate cut in September.

—Michael Lewis, Freemarkets, Inc.

What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic at Jackson Hole this year focuses on employment: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy”.

Join us on Monday to discuss what’s next

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background (recent articles by our panelists)

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

Mark Roeder:

Karim Pakravan:

Random Access Economics

Global Financial and Emerging Markets Weekly Update

Quote of the Week: “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” Fed Chair Jay Powell…

Read more

7 months ago · 1 like · Karim Pakravan

Michele Wucker:

The Gray Rhino Wrangler

The Debt Gray Rhino Continued: Can We Grow Our Way Out?

We started this series with an overview of the US national debt gray rhino: obvious, already trampling us, widely discussed -yet still not adequately addressed…

Read more

7 months ago · 2 likes · Michele Wucker

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

❗ Reminder to econVue subscribers to register for our next panel—link below

What's Next After Jackson Hole?

Just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals? What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic of the fabled Jackson Hole Symposium this year will focus on employment. As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

^📍Chicago

⧉ Background

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

A Tour d’Horizon

Elections across Asia Pacific are over—but what comes next?

This panel explores the economic implications of pivotal elections across the Asia-Pacific region. From Japan’s rightward shift to India’s contested mandate, Taiwan’s failed recall efforts, and Australia’s status quo government, our experts analyze what political transitions mean for regional stability, trade, investment, and US strategy.

The panel features econVue contributors Marsha Vande Berg and Saliya Weerakoon who shared their insights on the Indian general election in May, along with regular contributors econVue fellow Eleanor Shiori Hughes (Japan & Australia) and Chicago economist Karim Pakravan. Eric Huang will discuss the recent victory for the KMT in Taiwan. Rick Katz will share his views on the Japanese election results. (See panelist bios below.)

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Weds, July 30th at 10 am CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

↳ Panelists

^{📍Washington}

^{📍Washington & Taiwan}

^{📍New York}

^📍Chicago

^{📍San Francisco}

^{📍Sri Lanka}

Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to join the discussion:

Subscribe now

↳ Login details

Read more

Introduction

Our panel last week, as the United States reached its 249th year, agreed that there are many reasons to celebrate. Job numbers remain strong despite headlines about layoffs and automation. Markets are booming—touching record highs in both traditional and new asset classes. Inflation seems under control, oil prices are falling, and the specter of nuclear escalation in Iran has been contained, at least for now. Even the US-China trade war appears to have cooled. Today’s CPI numbers were pretty much as expected.

My takeaway

A common thread in our discussion: trust. US partners and rivals alike are unsure of policy direction in Washington, and so are behaving cautiously. Although the real economy and markets in the US are giving President Trump the benefit of the doubt, our allies are confused. An interesting sidelight is that the best-performing asset is Bitcoin, which is a trustless cryptocurrency. Please see new posts by econVue contributors on these subjects below.

Upcoming panels will focus on Asia Pacific geoeconomic issues. Watch your inbox for future dates.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

Discussed on this Panel

Our panel of global experts assessed the resilience of the American economy—and the risks it now faces from rising tariffs, falling trust, and fiscal disarray:
• Marsha Vande Berg (Pension and Sovereign Wealth Advisor)
• Karim Pakravan (Economist, Random Access Economics)
• Gordon Parrish (Free Markets Inc.)
• Michele Wucker (Author of The Gray Rhino)
• Eric Huang (Taiwan & Semiconductor Specialist at Hale Strategic)
• Special Guest: Joel Ross (Investor and Author of the Ross Rant)

⧈ Insights

Markets Are Rising—But So Is Risk
Despite record market highs and falling oil prices, panelists warned of fundamental fragility masked by short-term optimism.

Trust Is the New Indicator
Both Marsha Vande Berg and Karim Pakravan emphasized that erosion of investor trust—especially among foreign bondholders—could trigger deeper instability.

Trump’s Tariff Strategy Is Reshaping Trade
Gordon Parrish described bipartisan support for a harder line on China, calling it a rare point of consensus that could escalate.

Taiwan: Strategic and Symbolic
Eric Huang warned that economic decoupling and military pressure on Taiwan is not just about semiconductors—“it’s about trust.”

What’s Next for the Fed?
With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, speculation swirled about his replacement. Could Trump tap Bessent to lead both the Fed and Treasury? Rumors have circulated that Scott Bessent could be tapped for a dual-role appointment as both Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary. But such a move would violate the 1935 Banking Act, which explicitly separates the two offices to safeguard US monetary independence.

❝ Resilience is the new catchword. Investors aren’t leaving dollar assets—they’re diversifying away from concentration risk.

❝ The word that kept rolling around in my head was trust. Bottom line, I think that’s what we’re seeing reflected in both markets and institutions.”

❝ We’re already on a knife’s edge. If the foreigners don’t trust us to manage our treasury market well, they’ll just stay away.

❝ We’re going to end up with fairly high tariffs—and that’s going to put pressure on the macro economy and accelerate the ‘sell America’ trend.

Gordon Parrish

❝ The entire Republican spectrum—mercantilists, free traders, neoconservatives—are all united in their desire to take down China.

❝ Powell will stay in control until May. Whoever comes next will just be Powell with another face.

❝ In the U.S. market, tariffs as a percentage of the final thing that consumers pay are just very small. They don’t really affect our services. They don’t affect the transportation, the storage, the marketing, the intermediate markups. It’s just the cost of goods sold at the border. And that’s not a big amount.

Michele Wucker

❝ International opinion of China has now surpassed the US—that has flipped. China is trying to capitalize on this shift.

❝ They were surprisingly optimistic about Trump in Beijing—perhaps because they feel they can negotiate with him.

Eric Huang

❝ Taiwan’s role is not just about chips. It’s about trust. If you want to break the global economy, you start by breaking Taiwan.
❝ Strategic decoupling has become a race—not just for economic security but for legitimacy in global governance.

Joel Ross

❝ The market isn’t pricing in the risk. Investors are chasing performance, not preparing for disruption.

❝ We’ve seen this movie before—people believe the Fed will step in no matter what. But if rates stay high, balance sheets will be exposed.

What to Watch Next

• July inflation numbers and their impact on Fed sentiment
• Reactions to new tariffs across Asia and Europe
• Shifts in foreign holdings of US Treasuries—are we nearing a tipping point?
• Growing divergence between equity market exuberance and bond market caution
• Whether the White House floats formal nominations for Fed or Treasury posts—and how the markets react

⧉ Backgrounder & Recommended Reading

Polling & Sentiment on the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill)
• KFF Poll: Views of the Bill
• Axios: Trump’s Bill & Public Support
• Kiplinger: Why Most Americans Say It Isn’t So Beautiful

By Our Panelists

• Karim Pakravan: The Specters Haunting the Global Economy

📬 Subscribe to stay informed. We’ll continue to track global risks, investor behavior, and policy decisions in real time.

Expert Voices. Global Focus. Informed Perspective.

If you are not yet a paid econVue subscriber and would like to attend our next panel discussion, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

Our panel discussion was led by economist Karim Pakravan. We were joined by econVue Fellow and defense ana…

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This wide-ranging discussion revealed that the global tariff détente may be less a resolution than a pause—one shaped more by political maneuvering than lasting policy consensus. From China’s “long g…

Read more

March 21, 2025
Hosted by econVue

As the world welcomed the first day of spring, econVue convened a panel of global experts for a far-reaching discussion on the state of the global economy. The panel explored everything from monetary policy to artificial intelligence, from demographic decline in Japan to strategic realignments in Asia and the Middle East. A pivotal question during this discussion: Is AI driving productivity or is its promise overhyped?

Moderated by econVue Editor-in-Chief Lyric Hughes Hale, our conversation included:

• Richard Katz, Japan Economy Watch

• Eleanor Hughes, non-resident fellow at econVue, Asian geopolitics

• Narimon Safavi, NPR commentator on global culture and Iran

• Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics, Northwestern University

• Gordon Parrish, senior economic analyst at Freemarket, Inc

• Paul Summerville, commentator on Canada and Japan’s financial industry

• Mark Roeder, Author and head of strategy at Hale Strategic, AI expert

• Collin Canright, Fintech Rising and Chicago Payments Forum

  ---

↳ Key Takeaways

• Japan’s Economic Realities
  Inflation in Japan is driven largely by food and energy imports—not by robust domestic demand. Real wages are stagnant, and household consumption is falling.
  (Richard Katz)

• U.S. Slowdown, Not Recession (Yet)
  Despite worsening sentiment, a broad-based recession is unlikely without a trillion-dollar GDP contraction. Government expenditures and cuts are not reflected in GDP.
  (Robert Gordon)

• India’s New Strategic Posture
  India is quietly favoring Russia over China on the global stage—reflecting a recalibrated nonaligned strategy.
  (Eleanor Hughes)

• The Hidden Middle East Story
  While headlines scream conflict, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China are building economic bridges, not walls.
  (Narimon Safavi)

• AI’s Real Disruption Still to Come
  Productivity gains from ChatGPT are marginal; real disruption will arrive with humanoid robots entering both homes and workplaces.
  (Mark Roeder)

• Japan’s Demographics as Destiny
  Japan’s aging population and declining workforce define its long-term trajectory more than any central bank action.
  (Paul Summerville)

• AI in Payments: Proceed with Caution
  AI copilots are replacing Google for many, but few are ready to let bots manage their bank accounts—yet.
  (Collin Canright)

↳ Featured Insights

“Japan’s inflation is misleading. Core prices are low—the real issue is stagnant wages.”
— Richard Katz

“No recession yet, but we’re in a slowdown. Sentiment has dropped sharply.”
— Robert Gordon

“India is recalibrating. Fewer Chinese delegates, more Russians—it matters.”
— Eleanor Hughes

“The real action isn’t war—it’s regional economic integration led by China.”
— Narimon Safavi

“ChatGPT won’t change the world. Robots that fold laundry might.”
— Mark Roeder

“Demographics are Japan’s defining constraint. It’s not about policy—it’s about people.”
— Paul Summerville

“AI is improving workflows, not just search—but trust in automation is still a major hurdle.”
— Collin Canright

⧉ Recommended Reading

1. Robert Gordon cited his recent paper, How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators? NBER Working Paper, Oct 2024.

   ---

2. 📊 Panel slides presented by Richard Katz:

   

   Katz Econvue March 21, 2025 Japan

   321KB ∙ PDF file

   Download

   Download

3. Richard Katz is also proud to announce the Japanese version of his book: The Contest for Japan’s Future.

   

4. econVue producer Sam Fu recommends this video on humanoid robots:

5. Lyric Hughes Hale referenced this data on mortgage refinancing:

   

Now on econVue

↳ 🎙️ Transcript and Executive Summary

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↳ Key Takeaways from our 2025 PreVue Panel

Our virtual panel explored highlights from our 2025 PreVue, a collection of forecasts by econVue contributors and special guests.

We enjoyed a lively discussion about the critical geoeconomic and technological events shaping 2025 and their practical implications. Please join us next time!

↳ Topics Discussed

AI, energy, the Middle East, jobs, tariffs, inflation, cryptocurrencies, robots, the US political transition, and more from experts in their fields.

↳ Video Replay

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65 minutes ∙ 20 registrants
⮑ Ended MON NOV 11, 2024 5:05 PM CDT (Chicago)

🚫 This informal discussion was off the record, but for those who could not attend, we created a summary of key points.

On Nov 11, 2024 we held a panel discussion with econVue contributors, subscribers, and members of the Chicago Financial Forum (CFF). My co-host for this event was Michael Lewis, economist at Free Market Inc, and co-founder of the CFF. We were joined by econVue contributors internationally for a lively and informative dialogue.

Many had been surprised by Donald Trump’s decisive election victory the previous week, on Nov 5th. The outcome seems to reflect a broader trend: for the first time in 120 years, all incumbents in major elections worldwide have been defeated—except India’s Narendra Modi. As the global economy continues to emerge from the effects of the pandemic, it is clear that voters are demanding change. What will this mean for monetary policy, fiscal spending, and markets?

We explored the potential economic implications of President Trump's reelection, covering topics like inflation, Ai’s impact on labor, immigration, and geopolitics in the Middle East, China and Taiwan, and Ukraine. The discussion included potential cabinet-level appointments, Elon Musk’s influence in the new administration, and the recent surge in cryptocurrency valuations.

Key takeaways

Leadership changes have network effects. New relationships can create fresh opportunities—or introduce new risks. While domestic divisions persist in many countries, technology is advancing regardless, with unknown consequences for labor, social mobility, and markets. In the coming weeks and months, and we will watch for clues about the future, and continue these conversations to harness collective wisdom.

Thank you to our panel and our audience, whose thoughtful, off-the-record contributions are always deeply appreciated. And a special thanks to guest panelist, Robert Madsen, Senior Economist at Hale Strategic.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

econVue Panels are a feature of paid membership. Interested in participating in our next discussion? Explore your options!

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👥 Panelists

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

^{📍San Francisco}

◻ Discussed on this Panel

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What Does 50 bps Mean? Our Panelists and Audience Discuss

If you missed the latest econvue panel, you can listen to our discussion in its entirety now. Part 2 of our Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August, our live panel took place immediately after the September 18th FOMC meeting. We were joined by members of the Chicago Financial Forum to discuss the historic Fed pivot, the first time rates were cut since March of 2020.

Our panelists include Chicago economists and econVue contributors Karim Pakravan, Michael Lewis, and Gordon Parrish. Other contributors to this not-to-be-missed debate: , , Michael Boyd, Rich Manewal, Joel Ross, Mark Zoff, and Northwestern University professor of economics, Robert Gordon.

Most were surprised by the 50 bps move. Our public poll on X also got it wrong:

New Data: Was 50 bps Too Much?

Then on Oct 4th, the September employment report was released. Our panel thought that the Fed would cut another 50 bps by the end of this year, but after Friday’s robust jobs report, there is renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve could hold rates steady in November. Larry Summers was quick to say that Fed went too far last month. Given this new data, did Jay Powell act too quickly?

In his latest report, our panelist Michael Lewis reacted to the BLS report:

Stronger payroll gains, higher wages, lower unemployment. Today’s report ruffled Fed doves’ feathers on most every front. Barring a significant deceleration in inflation this month, the next step in the FOMC’s promised aggressive easing campaign should be a pause at the early November meeting. (But Powell & Co. have been following their hopes, not the data…)

Free Market Inc

The Lone Fed Dissenter

Our panelists noted the dissent of Federal Reserve board member Michelle Bowman, the first for an FOMC decision since 2005. It took several days for the blackout period to end, and for Governor Bowman to more fully explain her actions:

As the post-meeting statement noted, I dissented from the FOMC's decision, preferring instead to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 5 to 5‑1/4 percent. Last Friday, once our FOMC participant communications blackout period concluded, the Board of Governors released my statement explaining the decision to depart from the majority of the voting members. I agreed with the Committee's assessment that, given the progress we have seen since the middle of 2023 on both lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, it was appropriate to reflect this progress by recalibrating the level of the federal funds rate and begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance of policy. As my statement notes, I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate while the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation remains a concern, despite recent progress.

Recent Views on Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: Governor Michelle W. Bowman, September 30, 2024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

My takeaways

• The panel focused on the lead up to the 50 basis points cut, questioning both its rationale and potential impact on markets and the economy.

• The panel questioned the sudden shift between 25 and 50 bps in the weekend leading up to the decision, perhaps signaling a change in forward guidance.

• As economist Robert Gordon mentioned during our discussion, the exact amount of the first cut doesn’t really matter – what does is the amount of easing by year-end. He contributed much to our discussion of labor markets, housing, inflation and of course, productivity.

• Michele Wucker’s concern that the impact of the rate cut on the real economy might not be as strong as the impact on markets is on point as US equity markets reach record highs after the Fed decision

• Housing should benefit from lower interest rates, but while an acute shortage of housing exists, the pricing issue appears to be supply more than demand.

• Labor is a lagging factor. We now know that even without the recent cut, that the labor market was quite strong in September.

• It is not just about monetary policy. The group discussed the government's ability to finance budget deficits and debt, with suggestions from Michael Boyd as to how the Treasury could impact bond yields (a new Operation Twist?) and support the housing market.

• He also raised the critical question: How do we measure growth and received an answer from Robert Gordon that is worth listening to more than once. ⧈ (44.51)

• Rate cuts will impact variable consumer debt. But policies will matter more.

• As Joel Ross said during our discussion, geopolitics matters. A conflict in the Middle East, which has certainly escalated since our discussion, could increase oil prices and therefore inflation.

• As Richard Katz predicted, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had initially planned to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but did not. Now the consensus is that they will wait until December.

econVue subscribers will gain deep insights from our panelists, who are veteran Fed watchers. Thank you to our panel and our audience, who contributed so much to the off-the-record discussion. Your comments as always are deeply appreciated.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

econVue Panels are primarily a feature of paid membership. Explore your options! If you would like to participate in our next discussion, please sign up today.

Subscribe now

👥 Panelists

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

◻ Discussed on this Panel

Topics

• Federal Reserve rate cuts and economic uncertainty

• Bank of Japan's plans

• Inflation rates, rate cuts, and election impact

• The US central bank's dual mandate and interest rate cuts

• Mortgage rates, home sales, and inflation discussion

• Inflation drivers and labor market dynamics

• Productivity, GDP, and GDI

• Government financing, fiscal policy, and the yield curve

⧉ Insights

• What are the international implications of a 50 bps cut by the Fed?

  “What I think is going to happen is it’s going to accelerate the easing of monetary policy in all the major countries, with the exception of Japan. I think there will be a boost to confidence and potentially economic growth in 2025, which is helpful for everybody. Also lower interest rates, as I said in the previous panel discussion we had, is going to help emerging markets in terms of their debt servicing costs. So it looks fairly positive for them as as a whole. Inflation is still a problem in many emerging markets so the easing there is going to be at a little bit of a slower pace. ⧈ (15:03)

  Basically, where we'll be at the end of the year is going to matter. And it doesn't matter if it's 50 right now. And so I go back to my point saying I think Powell basically wanted 1% by the end of the year, and then he just decided to do 50 right now, not because he just felt like it, but maybe he was worried that if he didn't do that, it would disrupt the markets again. ⧈ (36:40)

Key moment ⤵

• Were you surprised by the 50 bps cut?

  “We were thinking a few months ago that they wouldn’t cut at all at the end of this year and that we would stick around the current five and a half at that time. And we’re not surprised given the commentary by Powell and others that they went ahead and eased today. But we are surprised that the eased 50 bps. ⧈ (3:10)

  My colleague Gordon Parrish was pointing out to me this afternoon that in March ‘22, the expectation for the funds rate was 2.8: ‘The striking parallel is that in March 2022, when the Fed increased rates for the first time to confront inflation their dot plot said our terminal rate is going to be 2.8% in 2024. And then we'll be done. Of course, that's not what happened. They went all the way up to 5.5%. They stayed there for 15 months. And inflation is still clearly above target. Today, they issue a new dot plot, a very aggressive plan to cut rates over the next two years. And they're ending up at 2.9%, which is the same place. And after being so spectacularly wrong back in 2022, the question is why are they doing any better now?’ ⧈ (6:18)

Key moment ⤵

⧉ Backgrounder

OCT 6, 2024

Recommended Reading

1. Transcript of Press Conference, Chair Jerome Powell, Sep 19, 2024 Federal Reserve

2. Statement by Michelle Bowman, Sep 20, 2024, Federal Reserve

3. econVue featured article:

Random Access Economics

Powell's Gambit

As expected, Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered a 50 basis point (bp, 0.5%) cut in the benchmark Fed Funds rate at the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September 18-19 meeting. The interest rate cut was great than expected—most analysts forecast a more prudent 25 bp cut…

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2 years ago · Karim Pakravan

Random Access Economics

Easing Monetary Policy

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2 years ago · 1 like · Karim Pakravan

7. Regarding employment and multiple job holders:

A Powell Pivot

On August 28th econVue hosted a panel to analyze the papers presented at Jackson Hole last weekend, and discuss what might happen in mid-September when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to set interest rates.

Our panelists include Chicago economists and econVue contributors Karim Pakravan and Michael Lewis, along with his colleague Gordon Parrish. They discussed the international implications of a potential shift in monetary policy, and expressed their views on recent US employment figure revisions. I shared some of my impressions of attending previous symposia at Jackson Hole.

If you missed our discussion last Wednesday, we invite you to listen to the opening remarks of our panel as they discuss the Jackson Hole papers and expected changes in the US monetary policy.

My takeaway

After Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, there is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut 25 bp at their September meeting and that was the consensus of our panel. Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will be especially beneficial for developing economies with high levels of dollar-denominated debt. But if the dollar weakens too much, that might negate recent gains on inflation. As the 19th century economist Walter Bagehot said, “flaws in the response to financial stability events undermine monetary stability”.

Moreover, inflation that was caused by Covid-related supply shocks could reemerge if geopolitical tensions escalate. As the papers presented at Jackson Hole revealed, this time was different, and recent inflation was also different.

Our panelists were unimpressed with the Fed’s recent forecasting record. Two key concerns emerged. Should the Fed continue to have a dual mandate, price stability and employment, when most other central banks do not? And are Fed communications muddying the waters? Can we find a balance between Alan Greenspan’s “total inscrutability” and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s call for completely open communications?

I think listeners will gain deep insights from our panelists, who are veteran Fed watchers. Thank you to our panel audience, who contributed so much to the off-the-record discussion as well. Your comments as always are deeply appreciated.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

👥 Panelists

^📍Chicago

^📍Chicago

◻ Discussed on this Panel

Topics

• Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (Michael Lewis)

• Remarks by the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey (Karim Pakravan)

• The viability of the 2% inflation target

• The Fed’s dual mandate vs the Taylor Rule

• Impact of recent revisions to the BLS jobs report

• Communications issues-should the Fed stop talking?

Links: Jackson Hole Presentations

1. Agenda and presentations for the 2024 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Federal Reserve of Kansas City)

2. Speech by Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole 🔊 (Federal Reserve Bank)

3. Reflecting on Recent Times, speech by Andrew Bailey for Jackson Hole (The Bank of England

⧈ Insights

Read more

What will money look like in 2050?

If you missed our discussion on July 16^th, we invite you to listen to our panel on digital payment systems. The most frequent comment after the panel ended was “I learned so much!”

The panel featured econVue contributor Collin Canright and special guest Dante Disparte, CSO of Circle, who shared their insights on digital payments and currencies. Whether you are new to this space, or a fintech expert, you will undoubtedly learn something from our two eminent, knowledgable, and articulate speakers.

I asked the question: what do centralized and decentralized payment systems mean for global investors? In a world facing cross-national conflict, political transitions, inflation, and growing sovereign debt, the answer to this question is highly consequential. What does money look like in 2050?

My takeaways

• As Adam Smith wrote, “All money is a matter of belief”. Since my podcast with Dante Disparte in 2021, fintech has made huge strides, and cryptocurrencies have gone mainstream. The challenge, simply put, is that regulators are not keeping up with financial technology innovators.

• Although digital payments will reduce friction in transactions, they will not replace the US dollar as a reserve currency in our lifetimes and in fact could further embed the dollar in the case of stablecoins. The future of money will consist of two parallel systems, perhaps three if China and Russia decide or are forced to go their own way.

• Based on technological advances and innovative use of blockchain, the present slow speed and costs of legacy banking will be replaced by secure, lightening fast payment networks that transcend national boundaries, creating economic growth and social benefits. There is no doubt that efficient payment systems can alleviate poverty, especially for the unbanked, and render assistance in an emergency.

  

• While we are still far away from the currency free zone envisioned in Star Trek, Gene Roddenberry’s concept of Federation energy credits was certainly prescient. In many ways in the horse and buggy era of payment systems, and progress has not been smooth. Regardless of the inventiveness of innovators, the limiting factor will be smart, fair and efficient regulation that will aid financial stability and establish guardrails for both investors and consumers. US leadership will be critical, and many in this space are counting on a change in administrations to enact these measures.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸

Editor-in-Chief & Moderator

Panelists

Special Guest

Dante Disparte

Dante Disparte serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy for Circle, the leading provider of internet-native payments and digital currency infrastructure as well as being the Founder and Chair of Risk Cooperative, a strategic insurance group. Dante advises governments, companies, and the world’s leading institutions on risk, resilience, and emerging technologies.

^{📍Washington DC}

^📍Chicago

◻ Discussed on this Panel

Topics

• Chicago as a hub in the digital payments space

• Closed loop vs open source payment systems

• Stablecoins: the future of digital payments

• Surprising comparison: $100 bill vs bitcoin for illegal activities

• Cross-border payments: traditional vs. crypto

• Banking system inefficiencies and the COVID-19 response

• The incoming set of EU rules in known as MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation, which will be to digital assets what GDPR was to crypto

• The US and UK stand to be outlier countries among the advanced economies on not having clear rules on the books

• Is a new regulatory regime on the way in the US? How can market participants and investors prepare?

Links

1. Could Stablecoins Destabilize Other Markets? (Michael Maiello, Chicago Booth Review, June 2024)

2. Payment Stablecoin Policy Principles (Dante Disparte, Circle)

3. BIS: Major Banks to Disclose Cryptoasset Holdings by 2025

4. Markets in Crypto-assets Regulation (ESMA [European Securities and Markets Authority])

5. Blockchain and GDPR ([General Data Protection Regulation] EU Parliament)

Events

• Digital Payments: Navigating the Future of Money (Chicago Payments Forum) – July 23, 2024 6-9 pm

⧈ Insights

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