Are we overreacting, or not responding enough to recent events?

The news cycle follows constant crisis: conflict in the Middle East, rising tensions in Asia, a deepening political divide in the US punctuated by episodes of violence, and concerns about where technology is leading us. These disruptions seem unrelated but they are all emblematic of growing global fragmentation.

Since World War II, globalization has depended upon a foundation, despite periodic flareups, of expanding trust between nations, institutions, and markets. As Steve Clemons observes in our discussion on the Hale Report, that world is giving way to one defined by “high-fear” globalization, where alliances are conditional and defensive, and risk is no longer easily priced. In fact, some risks might not be able to be quantified at all.

Across this issue of re:Vue, that shift in risk comes into focus through the work of our contributors. In my article, Bolt from the Blue, the escalation surrounding Iran underscores how geopolitical risk has moved beyond traditional deterrence toward a more diffuse and unpredictable nuclear landscape. Our panel on a “New Monroe Doctrine” reveals how this uncertainty is reshaping regional strategy, as the United States redefines its sphere of influence through the lens of sovereign economic security.

The material foundations of power are being reassessed. Measuring Energy Security highlights the growing effort to quantify resilience before crisis hits, while in After the Storm Eric Huang traces China’s transition toward a mobilization state—reordering its institutions around endurance rather than growth. The Great Productivity Divide argues, the real contest is not over technology itself, but whether economic systems can effectively deploy it. Taken together, they point to a broader social and economic reset.

That leads to a more fundamental question about incentives and behavior. As Arthur Laffer reminds us during our podcast, policy does not merely respond to conditions—it shapes the actions of individuals and institutions.

What connects these perspectives is a common challenge: in a high-fear world, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish real risks from imagined threats. Markets react to both, often imperfectly. Policymakers must navigate between them, because the consequences of getting that distinction wrong are no longer confined to economics. They are systemic.

It is difficult enough to follow the onslaught of events, but to interpret them, to separate structure from spectacle requires a willingness to learn from expert, and sometimes contrasting perspectives. In a high-fear world, judgment, not information, has become the scarcest resource of all.

In case you missed them, we hope you enjoy listening to and reading our recent work.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

About re:Vue

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive e-mail, prefaced by our editorial commentary. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

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1 .:

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🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 77

Steve Clemons- The Man About Town in a Fragmenting World→

▶️ Listen now (1:00:32)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ FEB 26, 2026

Our guest for Episode 76 of The Hale Report™ was Steve Clemons, Editor-at-Large of The National Interest and veteran global policy convener. He explores the transition from an era of "high-trust" globalization to one defined by "high-fear," where unconditional alliances are being replaced by ad hoc, conditional arrangements. 💬

2 .:

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🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 78

Arthur Laffer- The Other Side of Taxation: Incentives→

▶️ Listen now (56:07)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ MAR 27, 2026

Our guest for Episode 78 of The Hale Report™ is the legendary economist Arthur Laffer, architect of the Laffer Curve and former advisor to President Reagan. He explores the fundamental role of incentives—shaped by taxation, trade, and monetary systems—in driving global economic behavior, arguing that policy does not merely allocate resources but actively dictates human and institutional action. 💬

3 .:

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↪: 👥 PANEL RECAP

MAR 11, 2026 → At the Crossroads of a New Monroe Doctrine

↳ Panelists: R. Evan Ellis, ERIC HUANG, Joshua W. Walker

Moderated by: Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor-in-Chief, econVue

On March 11, 2026, econVue convened a panel to examine the shifting boundaries of American influence as regional security concerns in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific increasingly converge. The discussion explored whether current US strategy represents the emergence of a “New Monroe Doctrine”—one that prioritizes homeland security and economic indispensability over traditional co-development. 💬

**SAVE THE DATE: Our next panel on the Xi-Trump Summit will be held on May 12th at 9am CDT. Click here to register and to receive more details:

Register for May 12th

↪: Latest articles

4 .:

§Conflict

Bolt from the Blue

Lyric Hughes Hale ⸱ APR 13, 2026

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The global system has entered a “new nuclear era” where the collapse of US-Iran talks and the subsequent US naval blockade—the most significant escalation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis—have pushed geopolitical risk beyond the limits of traditional market pricing. With the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight and satellite evidence suggesting Iran possesses highly enriched uranium, the world faces a shift from concentrated Cold War risks to a widely distributed, “high-fear” landscape where miscalculation and the erosion of nuclear guardrails pose an existential threat to the global economy. 💬

5 .:

§Energy

Measuring Energy Security

Lyric Hughes Hale ⸱ MAR 21, 2026

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The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently hosted the launch of the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA) US Energy Security Index (ESI), a critical new tool for quantifying American resilience in a volatile global system. Cross-posted by the Hale Strategic Resources Initiative (HSRI), the discussion emphasizes that energy is the foundation of economic security and cannot be improved without precise measurement. By tracking 18 indicators across fuel and mineral sectors, this index—led by NCEA Executive Director and HSRI board member Mark P. Mills—provides a major contribution to US efforts to identify and mitigate systemic vulnerabilities before they reach a crisis point. 💬

6 .:

§ Tech & AI

The Great Productivity Divide

Lyric Hughes Hale ⸱ MAR 9, 2026

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While the global spotlight remains fixed on the technological race for AI supremacy, the true determinant of economic power is not technological discovery, but price discovery. Despite China’s massive lead in industrial robotics—installing nearly half of the world's robots annually—its total factor productivity growth has slumped to 1% or less, leaving its output per hour at just one-third of US levels. Sustainable innovation yields lasting gains only when institutional systems allow market signals to deploy resources efficiently across the economy. Ultimately, the AI "race" is less a battle of technologies and more a competition between economic systems to see which can best discover how to use these tools most productively. 💬

7 .:

§Conflict

After the Storm: China’s Military Purges and the Rise of a Mobilization State

⸱ERIC HUANG ⸱ FEB 18, 2026

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The investigation of General Zhang Youxia and senior PLA leadership marks a "self-inflicted decapitation strike" that signals China’s definitive shift from a developmental model to a mobilization state. By purging five of the seven Central Military Commission members appointed in 2022, Xi Jinping has dismantled the traditional princeling-led military power centers, trading institutional experience for absolute vertical obedience. This transition suggests that Beijing is no longer managing its economy for consumer prosperity, but is instead "hardening" its industrial and financial systems—prioritizing semiconductor autonomy and energy resilience to survive a state of permanent strategic siege. 💬

Who's on econVue?

🖊️ Vue⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼
⇣

8.:

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📌 Notes

11.:

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17.:

📅 UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy Event Registration:
The Beauty of Limits: How Constraint Can Be Where Possibility Begins↗

May 12, 2026

Location: Online (Virtual Conversation)

Cost: Free (Registration typically required via the link below)
Speakers

• Patrick Caddeau: Dean of Forbes College, Princeton University

• Ulrike Schaede: Professor at UC San Diego (GPS); Director, Japan Forum for Innovation and Technology

This discussion explores how Japan’s history of resource scarcity and geographical limits fostered a unique aesthetic and innovative spirit. Long before the “circular economy” was popularized, Japan developed a framework where constraints were viewed as generative tools for ingenuity rather than restrictions.

See past editions of re:Vue

🔗 Visit econVue.com for original articles, global panels, and expert insights on economics and geopolitics.

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—re:Vue is a digest of econVue content over the past month.

Dear Readers,

As we approach Thanksgiving, it is appropriate that our November re:Vue presents a cornucopia of econVue articles, podcasts, and Vuepoints about the evolving state of the world economy. Globalization is not ending, but its code is being rewritten. Trade has become a weapon, a political bargaining tool, and the phrase “economic security” dominates think tank discussions. From the Council on Foreign Relations:

❝ Weaponized interdependence is an unanticipated byproduct of the grand era of globalization that is drawing to a close.

—Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, The Weaponized World Economy, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2025

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In 1909, more than a century ago, economist Norman Angell argued that world trade had created a potentially peaceful interdependence that would prevent conflict, because war was irrational and unproductive. His optimistic take was so popular that he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1933.

❝ The subject of rivalry between nations is business, and the code which has come to dominate business must necessarily come to dominate the conduct of governments.

Today, that code is no longer metaphor. It’s literal and includes data, platforms, algorithms, and AI. Institutions have been captured; narratives have been contested. Hacking is rampant. The world has learned that the code has been weaponized, and some of it is breaking.

See past editions of re:Vue

Systems no longer self-correct but stagnate, and supply chains that once flowed now must be re-engineered. Across this issue of re:Vue, the pattern is unmistakable:

• Resources shape policy

• Supply chains are diplomacy

• Scarcity is power

• Technology creates leverage

• Governance, not growth, determines resilience.

As economist Karthik Muralidharan notes in this month’s Hale Report podcast with Marsha Vande Berg, development isn’t about spending more — it’s about building capacity. Infrastructure, both real and societal, can no longer be patched.

Middle powers are already acting on this reality. And in this new world, the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Australia are architecting high-tech corridors of opportunity, even as they maintain their surface roads with China. The BRIC countries are forming their own new networks. Optionality is becoming a form of power. Resilience is critical.

At econVue, our role is to illuminate that shift: we build corridors of information to help our readers see around corners. Globalization 2.0 isn’t just happening to us. It is taking shape now. This is not just a place to share ideas, but to build them together. ,

With all best wishes,

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive e-mail, prefaced by our editorial commentary. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

View my account

• Stories in ↪ re:Vue

↪: Now on econVue 🔈

1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 74

Karthik Muralidharan–Accelerating India's development: Why governance trumps growth→

▶️ Listen now (1:01:40)

Hosted by MARSHA VANDE BERG ⸱ OCT 26, 2025

---

In Episode 74 of The Hale Report® guest host Marsha Vande Berg speaks with Karthik Muralidharan, Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics at UC San Diego. They explore how improving state capacity—not simply increasing spending—can drive more equitable growth and opportunity across India. The conversation also highlights how these insights extend to developing democracies worldwide—where effective governance may prove the true engine of sustainable progress. 💬

2 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 73

Adair Turner–Economist, regulator, and climate leader on carbon pricing and systemic risk→

▶️ Listen now (1:00:12)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ OCT 4, 2025

---

My guest for Episode 73 of The Hale Report™ is Lord Adair Turner — economist, former head of the UK Financial Services Authority, and chair of the G30 Working Group on Carbon Pricing. He joins to discuss the group’s new report, Carbon Pricing and Markets—Enabling Efficient Emission Reductions. Turner argues that putting a real price on carbon is the cornerstone of any credible path to net zero — and warns that today’s patchwork of weak, underpriced markets risks repeating the same mistakes that led to the 2008 financial crisis. 💬

↪: Latest articles

3 .:

§ Conflict

Xi Jinping: The Living Heart of the Party→

ERIC HUANG ⸱ OCT 23, 2025

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What began as a campaign to restore Party discipline is now a struggle to sustain motion in a system that moves only when one man does. Inside Beijing’s ministries, officials read not the line but the mood, learning to calibrate silence as survival. The machinery of the Party still hums, but its rhythm is no longer collective—it’s cardiac. The question is no longer who will succeed Xi, but whether the system can remember how to breathe without him.

4 .:

§ Conflict

The US Is Underinvested in Rare Earths — Now We’re in Trouble→

STEPHEN BRYEN⸱ OCT 18, 2025

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In the new age of strategic scarcity, rare earths aren’t just materials. They’re leverage. America’s stockpiles are nearly empty, and China holds the keys.

5.:

§ Conflict

No Surprise, It’s Elemental→

LYRIC HUGHES HALE⸱ OCT 15, 2025

---

The age of oil shaped the twentieth century; the age of elements will define the twenty-first. From cobalt to neodymium, power now lies in what cannot be seen but moves everything. China understood this early, turning geology into strategy and scarcity into leverage. The world is only beginning to realize that control of matter is control of destiny. 💬

6.:

§ Policy & Micro

The US Government Shutdown Continues→

GORDON PARRISH and MICHAEL LEWIS ⸱ OCT 11, 2025

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The government shutdown has become less an economic event than a political ritual. The numbers will recover quickly; the trust will not. Each episode erodes a little more confidence in the process itself, turning fiscal management into performance art. The real cost isn’t in lost output, but in the normalization of dysfunction—and in how easily Washington accepts crisis as routine.

7.:

§ Regional

Tariffs, Taiwan, and the Price of a Screw→

ERIC HUANG ⸱ OCT 9, 2025

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The trade war has finally reached the factory floor. What began as Washington’s tariff spreadsheet is now a daily struggle in Taichung’s workshops, where family businesses weigh sentiment against survival. A twenty-percent tariff and a surging Taiwan dollar are squeezing the margins of the very suppliers that keep American hardware stores stocked. The result is a quiet inversion of globalization: the screws that hold America together are tightening elsewhere, and the cost will show up not in trade data, but at the checkout counter.

8.:

§ Regional

The Alliance in Action in the Solomon Islands→

ELEANOR SHIORI HUGHES ⸱ OCT 3, 2025

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Amid a new scramble for influence in the Pacific, the Solomon Islands has re-emerged as both symbol and test of allied resolve. What began as concern over China’s security pact with Honiara has evolved into a broader effort by Australia and the United States to reconnect through history, infrastructure, and trust. On Guadalcanal, the memory of shared sacrifice still shapes diplomacy, reminding both nations that their alliance is not only defensive but generational. The real contest in the Pacific is less about bases than about belonging.

9.:

§ Conflict

Location Risk→

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ SEP 29, 2025

---

Globalization’s great bridges are being lifted, one by one. The United States and China, once partners in growth, now face each other from behind economic and technological walls. What was once integration has become insulation, and what used to be interdependence is turning into exposure — location risk on a planetary scale. As both powers turn inward, the real question is no longer who will lead the global economy, but who will remain connected when the map itself starts to close. 💬

🖊️ Vue⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼
⇣

econVue contributors share their latest thoughts on the global economy and their experiences covering it

10.:

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📌 Notes

13: ⤵

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See past editions of re:Vue

↪: What econVue’s reading ✁

Read more

In this issue of re:Vue, we look at how moments of turmoil, from politics to financial markets, can transform into opportunities for reversal, renewal, and reflection.

Murphy’s Law states that everything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Its inverse, Yhprum’s Law (Murphy spelled backwards) reminds us that sometimes what can go right, will. The recent news from NASA that life may have existed on Mars is a wonderful example of things going right in spite of harsh conditions.

Monday’s announcement by President Trump that China and the US have reached a tentative agreement on a blocking issue, the ownership of TikTok, opens the door to more negotiations. My initial reaction was, what was the Chinese readout? Soon thereafter I received confirmation from the Chinese Embassy in Washington. Another example of something that might have gone wrong but did not. We will await the results from the Trump-Xi call on Friday.

That news, combined with the expected Fed rate cut on Wednesday, drove markets to record highs on Monday. In spite of panic this year over policy shifts, the US economy is performing better than its peers. Job numbers, once the bedrock of monetary policy, now seem less indicative of true labor conditions and are subject to major revisions. But most Fed watchers agree that there is enough of a trend line to allow the Fed to do what President Trump has long, and loudly, urged. However, economic pressures are real: Moody’s Analytics details a 2-million unit national housing shortage, especially in workforce rental markets.

At Jackson Hole, economist Laura Veldkamp (Columbia) noted that she could find no evidence that AI is destroying jobs, and an MIT study revealed that 95% of corporate efforts to employ AI have ended in disappointment. My colleague Mark Roeder would disagree; he writes in his article below that AI will dampen employment to the extent that we will need to devise a new social contract. This is the first in our series “Just Around the Corner: The World in 2030”.

The hit many feared to the US economy from tariffs has also failed to show up in GDP data. Moreover, our relations with allies seem to be stabilizing ahead of this month’s UN General Assembly meetings in New York, where more olive branches may be extended. As economic historian Zachary Karabell recently wrote:

The trade war is over… there are no more surprises left, and governments and markets have now adjusted to the chaos machine that is the Trump administration.

Zachary Karabell, on X

Here in Chicago, many braced for the National Guard to arrive, with attendant protests, but so far things have been more or less peaceful—although the underlying problems of crime and education that have plagued our beautiful city persist. National attention, however, has given some of us hope that overdue reforms may be possible. This is despite the unwillingness of our local officials, cosseted by heavy security, to acknowledge how crime affects the everyday life of citizens here.

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, for example, is reported to have up to 100-150 security officers, plus 20 personal bodyguards—more than the heads of government of the UK, Germany, and France. It would be impossible for officials here to understand the anxiety level of a young woman riding public transportation in this city. The gap between lived experience and official denials and detachment has a human as well as an economic cost. According to the University of Chicago Crime Lab, if even a fraction of the costs of crime were recouped by businesses, it would amount to billions of dollars of additional revenue—and a much higher quality of life.

Beyond our city, the murder of Charlie Kirk is another reminder that violence in America is a national issue, and even an international issue, based on demonstrations in London and Seoul this weekend. In Chicago, crime affects individuals and erodes community trust, but political assassinations, a recurrent feature of our history, reverberate far more widely.

What struck me most about this young man from the Chicago suburbs was his Socratic style of engagement with students. My Greek heritage leads me to reflect on Socrates, accused of corrupting youth in an Athens unsettled by war and internal division, and condemned to death by his own city. His opponents initially rejoiced over his death, but soon regretted silencing him. However, from that loss emerged the writings of Plato and Aristotle, whose work still shapes how we think about political life today. Aristotle called this kind of reversal a peripeteia, a reminder that tragedy can bring renewal, and, hopefully, a more temperate national dialogue.

These types of historical reversals can come from unexpected places. Cryptocurrencies were supposed to support criminal elements before collapsing in a heap, but those fears have not been realized. My podcast guest Collin Canright (see #2 below) instead sees a future in which traditional finance and decentralized finance work together to provide much smoother payment systems. Similarly, Joel Ross, another recent guest on The Hale Report and included on our reVue list, remains cautiously optimistic, despite Wall Street denizens who have been calling for a crash that never came.

So, many things that we have feared have not turned out all that badly—and even tragedy contains the seeds of renewal. But optimism is not a strategy. As econVue contributor Michele Wucker often reminds us, we need to be focused on the gray rhinos—the risks we know—and do what we can to mitigate them. Hope is not enough.

With the thesis in mind that we often are able to muddle through even difficult situations, despite initial inaction and lack of foresight, please enjoy this recap of our recent articles, panels, and podcasts. Feel free to share what our contributors have been writing and discussing over the past month.

A final note, an invitation: if you are in the Chicago area this Wednesday, the new Chicago chapter of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) is having a pop-up event from 5-7 PM to discuss the Fed decision expected that afternoon. [*Details below #16] Hope to see you there!

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive e-mail, prefaced by our editorial commentary. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

View my account

Stories in ↪ re:Vue

↪: Now on econVue 🔈

1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 72

Joel Ross — Where Main Street Meets Wall Street→

▶️ Listen now (1:17:53)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ SEP 7, 2025

---

My guest for the 72nd episode of The Hale Report™ is Joel Ross, a Wall Street veteran and author of the long-running Ross Rant newsletter. In this conversation, Ross argues that while markets appear strong, structural cracks are widening — from Washington’s fiscal imbalance to real estate’s looming wave of demolitions. He contends that interest rates won’t fix affordability or revive empty offices, and that Main Street realities remain out of sync with Wall Street rallies. His blunt takeaway: the next crisis won’t come from rates, but from ignoring the hard truths about debt, politics, and policy. 💬

2 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 71

Collin Canright — Money in Motion: Stablecoins, Payments, and the Global Fintech Race→

▶️ Listen now (54:50)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ AUG 24, 2025

---

My guest for the 71st episode of The Hale Report™ is Collin Canright, founder of the Chicago Payments Forum and editor of FinTech Rising. In this discussion, we explore the global race for payments: are stablecoins the bridge to seamless finance or the return of private money? Can they reinforce U.S. dollar dominance while reshaping trust in digital identity? What makes this moment different is not speculation — it is adoption. Money is no longer just moving; it is transforming into the infrastructure of the next economy. 💬

3 .:

👥 PANELS

Recap: Post-Jackson Hole → All Options on the Table

▶️ Watch now (1:21:09)

AUG 25, 2025

---

If you missed our discussion on August 25th, catch our Jackson Hole panel featuring Michael Lewis, Karim Pakravan, Gordon Parrish, Michele Wucker, Kathleen Graham, and Mark Roeder, moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale. The panel explored U.S. growth risks, Fed independence, fiscal fragility, labor data accuracy, and the disruptive forces of demographics and AI.💬

4 .:

§ Reflection

Queen of the Night →

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ AUG 17, 2024

“Is legacy measured in headlines or in the quiet marks we leave on loved ones? Jeanne Hale’s life in Vermont reached far beyond through family and memory. What makes her story different is not fame, but resilience and joy. She was a Queen of the Night, her brilliance fleeting, yet enduring. 💬

5 .:

§ Tech & AI

We Need a New Social Contract for AI→

MARK ROEDER ⸱ AUG 19, 2025

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“In the coming age of intelligent machines, is AI the ultimate savior or the next existential threat? AI is no longer a tool, it is becoming the terrain on which the new social contract will be written. 💬

6.:

§ Regional

Xi’s Wobble →

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ AUG 12, 2025

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“In Xi Jinping’s China, is centralization the ultimate strength or the system’s fatal flaw? Power is no longer institutional, it is personal — and every negotiation begins and ends with the man in the Ming chair. 💬

7.:

§ Regional

Who Will Succeed Xi?→

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ AUG 5, 2025

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“In Beijing’s opaque politics, is succession a managed process or a looming crisis? Can Xi Jinping’s system endure without Xi himself at the center? What makes this moment different is not just speculation, it is succession without precedent. The question is no longer if Xi will be replaced, but who could bridge the gap when the chair is suddenly empty. 💬

📌 Notes

8.:

Geopolitics and global markets are colliding in the Middle East as the region adapts to new energy realities. What happens here will reverberate across Europe and Asia. 💬

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“As the next government shutdown slowdown approaches, Washington should be smarter about cutting expenses and keeping investment.”

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See past editions of re:Vue

↪: Off econVue 🔈

16.:

* 📅 NABE Chicago Event Registration:

Pop-Up Roundtable: 9/17 Federal Reserve Decision ↗

September 17, 2025

Metropolitan Club
233 South Wacker Drive, 67th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606
Members: $35 Non-Members: $40

---

17.:

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→ The International Economy

⌞Looking Ahead Ten Years, What Outside-the-Box Economic Development Could Shock the World? - Privacy will be our most valuable resource ↗

Lyric Hughes Hale ⸱ SPRING 2025

---

In 2036, privacy may eclipse oil, gold, and even data as the most valuable resource. A generational shift toward decentralization — from money and identity to memory itself — will drive new business models built on encryption and consent. Companies that sell privacy, not exploit it, will thrive in this transformed economy. 💬

↪: What econVue’s reading ✁

Read more

At the beginning of this year, policy uncertainty was at its peak: a new (or returning) US president had taken office, and elections had just been held around the world. Following on a wave of contests this year and in 2024, the key races are now mostly over. Over the past six months, the policy direction of the Trump administration has become increasingly clear, shaped by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Today, President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new trade deal at his luxury golf course in Scotland—literally on his own turf— averting a possible tariff war. Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet with Vice-Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm on Monday, followed by a possible Trump-Xi summit in October. Deals have continued to flow with trading partners around the world, including Japan and Australia (show me the beef!). Companies are adjusting. Markets are surging. Tariffs have become a more-or-less predictable seesaw.

However, clarity at the top does not necessarily translate to stability at lower altitudes. According to FINRA, margin debt has exceeded a record $1 trillion. Auto loan delinquencies are trending upward—with Gen Z and millennial car owners leading the pack. This highly consequential week, we will see a slew of economic data releases, and of course, the Fed will decide on interest rates on Wednesday. Could we see the first signs of a downturn in the US economy?

If so, it is a good thing that Trump and Powell are speaking. I am not sure how this happened, but getting builder Trump to the Fed construction site for their meeting last week was an act of political genius. Afterward, the President urged Powell to see the multi-billion-dollar through, tweeting, “It is what it is”. My only question: will the new annex be named for Powell, or for the man who green-lit its completion?

Other issues linger, tempering optimism. The Middle East, and Ukraine continue to grind out their differences on the battlefield. I originally thought that both wars would be over by this time, but the implacable nature of the adversaries has made that incredibly difficult to achieve. The threat to Taiwan from China, and the possibility of a North Korean meltdown, have not receded. The upcoming annual seaside meetings at Beidaihe, attended by senior Chinese government leadership, will soon clarify some of these issues. I will be writing more about this key event, and ongoing tensions with the US.

Technological competition between China and the US is increasing. It seems that Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has replaced Elon Musk as the Chinese conduit to the White House. A billion dollars’ worth of advanced Nvidia chips were smuggled into China, muddying the battle lines. Meanwhile, here in Chicago, a new alliance is building a world-class quantum computer research center, and AI is accelerating across many sectors. Cryptocurrencies are also in a bull market following rapid regulatory adoption in the US, which China will lose out on since they have banned private ownership.

I also noted this week that in tests conducted by official Chinese media Tesla’s self-driving systems were judged far superior to domestic Chinese brands—in spite of the fact that Tesla is handicapped by the inability to export data. It is also possible that recent claims that China is far ahead of the US in technology are overstated—and not made by technology experts.

The policy changes to watch in China will be structural reforms to its economy. A new law, adopted in June, significantly revises the Anti‑Unfair Competition Law to curb “involution‑style” or hyper-competition between provinces and industries—a game changer. Could the floodgates to reform finally be opening?

What’s Next?

Please mark your calendars for our next panel on Wednesday morning, July 30th at 10 am Chicago time, to discuss the economic impact of recent political changes in the Asia-Pacific region. Registration details can be found at the end of this email.

To help our readers stay abreast of developing trends and breaking events, econVue publishes re:Vue, a monthly digest of our most recent articles, contributor Vuepoints, The Hale Report podcast, and panels on critical topics. In case you have missed some of our content over the past several weeks, here is what we’ve covered, and what we’re watching next.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

re:Vue is all our content condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive monthly e-mail. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

View my account

.: Stories in ↪ re:Vue

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1.:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 70

George DeMartino—The Ethical Tragedy of Economics→

▶️ Listen now (1:01)

Hosted by Lyric Hughes Hale ⸱ JUL 17, 2025

---

As economists continue to shape the world without a professional oath or code of conduct, George DeMartino warns of a mounting ethical crisis in the field. In an age of AI, inequality, and global economic experimentation, restoring ethics to economics may be the most urgent reform of all.

2.:

👥 PANELS

The American Dream →

In a World at Risk (audio replay)

FRI, JUL 9th @ 3 pm CDT

---

• Panelists

Special guests: Gordon Parrish, Joel Ross, Michele Wucker

Moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale

This discussion revealed that while the U.S. economy shows remarkable strength, underlying risks—from eroding trust to geopolitical flashpoints—threaten to upend the fragile balance. From Bitcoin’s rise as a “trustless” asset to speculation over Trump’s next Fed Chair pick, the panel underscored: signals of instability may already be flashing.

3 .:

👥 PANELS

Crisis in the Middle East →

All Options on the Table

MON, JUN 16 @ 4 pm CDT

---

• Panelists

Moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale

This discussion revealed that while markets remain calm, underlying risks—from energy supply shocks to accidental escalation—threaten to upend the fragile balance in the Middle East. From China’s quiet influence in the region to skepticism about regime change in Iran, the panel underscored: even small missteps could trigger global disruption.

↪: Latest articles

4.:

§ Conflict

How Will China React →

From fringe to reserve asset

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUN 22, 2025

---

As the US launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Middle East crisis has deepened—but the trajectory of America’s China strategy remains critical. War in the Middle East and peace in the Asia-Pacific are inseparable issues. Lyric Hughes Hale and Carl Minzer were hosted by the Strategic Investor Conference to discuss China, moderated by Ed D’Agostino. Video included, courtesy of John Mauldin Economics.


5 .:

§ Tech & AI

Bitcoin’s Strategic Inflection Point →

From fringe to reserve asset

ERIC HUANG ⸱ JUL 14, 2025

---

In the currency wars of the 21st century, is Bitcoin the ultimate hedge—or the next geopolitical flashpoint? Can it remain neutral as nations race to weaponize finance? What makes this moment different isn’t just price—it’s position. Bitcoin is no longer speculative—it is becoming strategic.

6 .:

Policy & Micro

For Whom the Tax Bell Tolls→

Funding warfare and welfare in a fragmenting world

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUL 1, 2025

---

As aging populations and rising defense costs collide, can fragile tax systems still fund both warfare and welfare with created a global debt crisis?

↪:🖊️ VUE⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼

---

7 .:

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8 .:

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9 .:

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10 .:

📌 Notes

11: ⤵

12: ⤵

13: ⤵

14: ⤵

Random Access Economics

The EU-China Summit

The latest summit between the European Union (EU) and China (aka The EU-China High Level Economic and Trade Dialogue) is expected to take place in Beijing on Thursday July 24. While the two sides are economic competitors and systemic and geopolitical rivals, they have been drawn together by the challenges posed by President Trump’s trade war. For both players, closer relations are both an opportunity and a necessity. An opportunity, because it allows them to build a global trade system that is less dependent on the United States; and a necessity, because trade represents a key factor in reviving their flagging economies…

Read more

10 months ago · 2 likes · Karim Pakravan

15: ⤵

❗Reminder to Paid Subscribers: Invitation to Register

👥 Upcoming Panel

🗓 Wednesday, July 30, 2025 · 10:00 AM CDT · Live on Zoom

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View my account

The Nuclear Option

↪: June 15th, 2025

For a brief moment in early June, it appeared that things were slowing down a bit for the summer, after a very fast start to the year. The sticky reality of political and economic change had begun to set in. Elon Musk departed Washington and went home. Trade negotiations continued, but no breakthrough agreements emerged. Markets began to adjust. Jobs reports and inflation readings were looking strong.

Then, as many feared, the long-festering conflict between Israel and Iran erupted. The sheer amount of information and misinformation is almost impossible to process. It feels as though the atomic clock must be very close to midnight. No matter how this ends, we are now on a dangerous road, and should be deeply concerned about the potential for catastrophic accidents along the way.

Today, the US and Iran were supposed to be negotiating in Oman. Instead, missiles are flying.

To discuss what might be happening, and what it means for the rest of the world, please join us for a special panel discussion on Monday afternoon. The registration link can be found at the end of this email.

Happy Father’s Day to all the the dads out there! Could not resist, given the events of this weekend, adding this photo of my Dad, meeting the Shah of Iran in 1964.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

.: Stories in ↪ re:Vue

↪: Now on econVue

---

🎧 1.: Deborah Wince-Smith—On Innovation →

THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 69

► Listen now 1:00:29

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ MAY 28, 2025

---

In this wide-ranging conversation, Lyric Hughes Hale speaks with Deborah Wince-Smith, President and CEO of the Council on Competitiveness (compete.org) about the future of American innovation and the global race for technological leadership. Wince-Smith shares insights from her decades-long experience shaping US science, technology, and economic policy—spanning the Reagan administration to today’s shifting geopolitical landscape.

Topics Discussed

• The structural pillars of US competitiveness, including the US national laboratory ecosystem

• Strategic challenges posed by China’s state-led innovation model

• Public-private collaboration in R&D and manufacturing

• The rise of regional innovation hubs

• The importance of restoring federal R&D investment

• AUKUS and dual-use technologies at the national security frontier

  ---

👥 2.: PANEL RECAP: Global Tariffs Update

May 14, 2025 →Strategic Recalibration or Tactical Retreat?

↳ Panelists: ERIC HUANG, KARIM PAKRAVAN, MICHAEL LEWIS, RICHARD KATZ

↳Moderated by: Lyric HUGHES HALE, Editor-in-Chief, econVue

This discussion revealed that the global tariff détente may be less a resolution than a pause—one shaped more by political maneuvering than lasting policy consensus. From China’s “long game” to Japan’s growing sense of betrayal, and from the complexities of US budget reconciliation to Taiwan’s emerging leverage, the panel made it clear: the next 90 days will be pivotal.

As Lyric Hughes Hale noted,

❝ We would have to be surprised not to be surprised again.

↳ Selected Quotes

❝ For the Chinese, this is not an economic issue—it’s a political one. And they believe they hold the upper hand in the long game. —Eric Huang

❝ There is a stunning reversal of the Trump administration’s trade and China policy… We heard decoupling, now we hear praise for Xi Jinping. That’s the main message I take from these talks. —Karim Pakravan

❝“This is a total knockout. Nobody was anticipating this, and Trump has once again surprised people with his agility.” —Michael Lewis

❝Japan’s exports to China depend far more on China’s exports to the US. than on China’s internal growth. The supply chains are deeply integrated, and tariffs threaten to break them apart.—Richard Katz

---

↪: Latest articles

3 .:

§ Regional,

Asian Financial Crisis 2.0 →

In the tug of war between the US and China, could the Hong Kong peg be weaponized? Can the Hong Kong dollar peg survive geopolitical weaponization amid U.S.-China rivalry?

---

4 .:

§ Policy & Micro

Taxation is the Death of Empires →

We don’t think much about taxes, but we should. From the fall of the Roman Empire to the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, flawed taxation policies have often both precipitated and foretold national decline.

---

↪: 🖊️ VUE⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼

5: ⤵

6: ⤵

7: ⤵

See all ❯

↳ Panel Registration

Please register in advance. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email and a private Zoom link.

Panel discussions are a feature of paid subscriptions. If you are not yet a supporting econVue subscriber and would like to join us, explore your options here:

Subscribe now

Read more

As we progress eventfully through 2025, the global economic landscape continues to shift beneath our feet. At econVue, we have provided commentary and analysis along the way that we hope…

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Dear Readers,

What hasn’t happened this October? Shifting alliances, ongoing conflict, changing economic policies, and even natural disasters have moved the center of global stability to a new and more tenuous place. Constant adaptation is critical.

As the US election season draws to a close, we have tried to keep our eye on the prize: the US economy. You’ll find recent Hale Report podcasts below, including the latest with Brian Wesbury. We will be posting new episodes with our November guests, Jason Furman and Ed Yardeni. They each represent a range of views and a range of approaches to the discipline of economics.

October is also the month of the annual fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank. econVue contributor Karim Pakravan has kept us informed about what was being discussed on the 80th anniversary of the Fund. He writes the IMF has shown remarkable resiliency over the years, and has been able to both “respond and adapt” during times of crisis. Contrast this track record with the WTO.

The Fund has 1200 PhD economists from just about every country their 191 member states represent, so their presentations are quite a feast, and I always learn something valuable. We will have more coverage to follow, including links to some of the most important and intriguing sessions.

Conflicts around the world continue to be of great concern, and the defense expertise of Stephen Bryen has kept econVue readers up to date on the latest developments. I wrote about two subjects, the economic impact of boycotts and natural disasters.

With the agreement of our participants, we posted the recording of our subscriber-only panel, including the Q&A, to everyone on Substack, because we thought that the conversation we had about the Fed, inflation and interest rates was so useful. Speakers included Robert J Gordon, Richard Katz, Michael Lewis, Karim Pakravan, Gordon Parrish, Michele Wucker and our valued econVue subscribers.

Next Friday, we will be hosting a Zoom call to discuss the impact of the election on the US and global economy. Details to follow. As I mentioned in a letter to subscribers last week, econVue is studiously non-partisan, so we hope to have a clear-eyed, open discussion about what comes next.

Finally, I cannot resist sharing:

🎃Happy Halloween from Illinois, the pumpkin capital of the United States.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive e-mail, prefaced by our editorial commentary. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

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↪: Now on econVue 🔈


1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 59

John Mauldin — Economic Cycles & Rejuvenation →

▶ Listen now (55:20)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ Sep 8, 2024

---

My guest for the 59th episode of The Hale Report™ My guest is a household name in the world of finance, John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics. He makes complex topics approachable to broad audiences, including more than a million subscribers to his free weekly newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline. Co-founder of Mauldin Economics, his perspective is sought after in the financial industry for his thought-provoking viewpoints, and by investors for his personal approach to money. 💬


2 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 60

Marc Faber — Contrarian Forecasting →

▶ Listen now (1:18:07)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ SEP 27, 2024

---

My guest for the 60th episode of the Hale Report is Marc Faber, the legendary Swiss-born investment analyst and fund manager. His academic background, combined with years of hands-on experience in financial markets, helped shape his unique analytical style. Faber is known for his contrarian views on financial markets and often pessimistic predictions about the global economy, earning him the nickname Dr Doom. He gained international prominence through his newsletter, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, which focuses on economic trends, asset bubbles, and market volatility. 💬


3 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 61

Brian Wesbury — Supply Side Economics →

▶ Listen now (1:03:06)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ OCT 26, 2024

---

Welcome to the 61^st episode of the Hale Report. My guest is Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors LP. He has also advised the Federal Reserve and the US Congress, among his other policy roles. Wesbury is a business-focused supply-sider. He lives up to Henry Hazlitt’s definition of a good economist, looking beyond the data and to the real economy, in order to understand the structural issues that affect global growth and innovation. 💬


4 .:

👥 PANELS

After Jackson Hole Part 2 →

^{Was 50 bps too much?}

ROBERT GORDON, LYRIC HUGHES HALE, RICHARD KATZ, MICHAEL LEWIS, KARIM PAKRAVAN, GORDON PARRISH, AND MICHELE WUCKER ⸱ SEP 18, 2024

---

Our readers predicted a 25 bps cut, and even our panelists were surprised by 50.

Our panel thought that the Fed would cut another 50 bps by the end of this year, but after the robust Oct 4th jobs report, there is renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve could hold rates steady in November. 💬

↪: Latest articles


5 .:

§ Policy & Micro

The IMF at 80 →
^{A Legacy of Crisis and Change}

KARIM PAKRAVAN ⸱ OCT 18, 2024

---

“The IMF seems uniquely qualified to meet the profound changes in the global economic and financial system through its eight decades-long operational and research track record….While its record on governance reform is incomplete, the IMF remains a central element of the Global Financial Architecture.  More work needs to be done, and in the words of Raghuram Rajan, professor at the University of Chicago Booth School ‘If the IMF didn’t exist, we would have to invent it.’”


6 .:

§ Energy & Impact

Swept Away →
^{The Economics of Disasters}

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ OCT 17, 2024

---

“In a complex and contentious world, global cooperation to predict, prevent, and recover from natural and manmade disasters will face increasing challenges. Whether confronting mankind’s ability to inflict harm upon itself, or nature’s fury, technology holds the potential to mitigate—or exacerbate—both.”


7 .:

§ Conflict

Bigger Wars on the Horizon? →
^{If diplomacy fails, four major flashpoints could trigger broader conflict}

STEPHEN BRYEN ⸱ SEP 30, 2024

---

“There are many flash points, and the danger of a larger conflict cannot be ruled out entirely. Many of these flashpoints are interconnected, and miscalculation could trigger a series of events that could spiral out of control, given the current divide of world powers and their respective spheres of influence. The economic recovery that the world has been making since Covid could vanish as a result.”


8 .:

§ Regional

Understanding Risks to Global Growth →
^{”If a lamplighter could see the world today…”}

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ SEP 25, 2024

---

“In the medium term, emerging markets will replace the demand that has been lost to China. In the longer term, technological advances leading to greater productivity will likely have a salutary, perhaps revolutionary impact, in ways we can scarcely envision. We often forget, in spite of the horrors that still persist, that the world we live in today would seem unimaginably wonderful to our ancestors. We have replaced awe with disgruntlement, instead of taking action to create the future we desire.”

See all ❯

↪: Who’s on econVue

9 .:

VOICES

Michael Lewis →

^{📍Chicago, IL}

---

Michael Lewis is the founder of Free Market, Inc. Before founding FMI, Mr. Lewis was an economist at Data Resources, Inc. and Atlantic Richfield Co. He was Chief Economist from 1978 to 1982 at Stein Roe & Farnham. He is known as one of the best Fed watchers in the business. Ask him about prime numbers.

Mike was our first guest on the Hale Report, and was recently a featured panelist on our Jackson Hole series.

• Focus

  → Monetary policy

  → In-depth data analysis of the US economy

  → How disasters affect data

  → How macroeconomics impacts the consumer

  → The economic implications of international trade

Who's on econVue? ❯

🖊️ Vue⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼
⇣

econVue contributors share their latest thoughts on the global economy and their experiences covering it

⫶

10 .:

---

A Short History of Boycotts →

OCT 27, 2024

---

⫶

11 .:

---

Powell’s Gambit →

JUN 20, 2024

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See all ❯

📌 Notes

12 .:

13 .:

14 .:

See past editions ❯

See all ❯

Read more

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets today. After Jackson Hole, and until last week, a 25 bps rate cut seemed to be a certainty. That changed suddenly last week and a 50 bps cut has been gaining currency. The odds suddenly became even — the very definition of what Jim Bianco calls maximum uncertainty — about tomorrow’s decision to go either 25 or 50 bps. Does a last minute shift in sentiment mean that forward guidance is no longer working? What role did the media play in Federal Reserve communications?

The Fed blackout period began on Sept 9th. All of this news occurred during a period in which they cannot comment, although former Fed officials have been unusually active. As Bill Dudley writes in Bloomberg:

I expect the Fed will do 50. I believe Chair Powell favors an aggressive approach: In his speech at Jackson Hole last month, he pointedly observed that a further weakening of the labor market — which seems to be happening — would be ‘unwelcome’.

This string of X quotes from some premier Fed watchers show how quickly interest rate forecasts have changed:

“Unless we get more stories to clarify things, I cannot find another meeting, going back to the 1990s, that was 50/50 a few days before a meeting. This is due to the Fed's bedrock principle of ‘forward guidance.’

Forward guidance means telling them what you will do before you do it. Now, we have maximum uncertainty. Did Timiraos' story wreck forward guidance? Was this the plan or an unintended consequence?

– Jim Bianco, Bianco Research • Sep 13, 2024 (@biancoresearch)

“The amount of cuts over the next few months ‘is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which I think is a close call,'said Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell. ‘I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a preemptive 50…but my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.’ Faust said he thinks the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing ‘a lot of language around it.

– Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal • Sep 12, 2024 (@NickTimiraos)

“I think the Fed should cut by 50 bps. I feel we overanalyze each data point for what it means on timing & size of rate move rather than ask what ‘level’ of rates is appropriate.

– Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal • Sep 15, 2024 (@greg_ip)

The Fed Decision

As we approach the Fed pivot on Wednesday, given surprising uncertainty about the amount the Fed will cut and why, how will markets react? A bigger than expected cut could signal that the Fed is concerned about the economy, but would not be unusual. When the Fed has changed course in the past, rate cuts have usually been greater than 25bps at the outset. But in many of those cases, the cuts were more or less emergencies:

A chart from Bianco Research that shows the volatility that began with the Wall Street Journal report on Sept 12th. The questions are, 1) what does 25 vs 50bps matter, and 2) does forward guidance still work? We will find out on Wednesday. What would I do if I were the Fed Chairman? One 100 bps cut, instead of stringing this process out over the rest of the year.

If you haven’t already signed up for our econVue panel discussion tomorrow at 4 pm to discuss the Fed decision and Jay Powell’s press conference, details and registration information below:

Register for Fed Panel Sep 18

We are running a poll on Twitter right now and so far, it looks like 2/3 are saying 25 bps. Here is a link to the poll:

Fed Poll

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive weekly e-mail. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

View my account

.: Stories in ↪ re:Vue

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1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT ^® ⸱ Episode 56

David Malpass — Can Better Policies Mitigate Risks to Global Growth? →

▶ Listen now (1:02:44)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE • JUN 26, 2024

---

Global debt continues to be the greatest threat to economic growth. In our 56th edition of The Hale Report, former World Bank president David Malpass outlines the problem and spillover effects on developing economies, including consequential humanitarian implications. After the Fed pivots on monetary policy this week, I believe fiscal policy will be the defining issue of 2025. 💬


2 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT ^® ⸱ Episode 59

John Mauldin — Everything Old is New Again: Cycles & Rejuvenation→

▶ Listen now (55:22)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE • SEP 4, 2024

---

My guest is a household name in the world of finance, John Mauldin, co-founder of Mauldin Economics. His mission is to make investors aware of the risks inherent in business cycles, so they are better prepared to weather any storms. He makes complex topics approachable to broad audiences, including more than a million subscribers to his free weekly newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline. 💬


3 .:

👥 PANELS

Upcoming Panel: Jackson Hole Part 2 – The Fed Decision (Sep 18) →

⧉ Background • ↳ Registration

MICHAEL LEWIS AND KARIM PAKRAVAN • SEP 18, 2024

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4 .:

👥 PANELS

Recap: After Jackson Hole Part 1 →

^{Up to the Mountains, and Down with Rates}

MICHAEL LEWIS AND KARIM PAKRAVAN • AUG 28, 2024

---

Our panelists include Chicago economists and econVue contributors Karim Pakravan and Michael Lewis, along with his colleague Gordon Parrish. They discussed the international implications of a potential shift in monetary policy, and expressed their views on recent US employment figure revisions. 💬

↪: Latest articles


5 .:

§ Regional

Xi Jinping’s Long March →

^{Struggle sessions continue as India charts its own path: a framework for understanding US-China relations}

LYRIC HUGHES HALE • AUG 22, 2024

---

US China policy, which is unlikely to change after the presidential election, is wrongly focused on strategic competition with China, which is unwilling to adapt to the realities of this new world. Both are following a path that will lead to success for neither.

Similarly, there are no signs that Chinese leadership is willing to re-engage in reforms that were halted beginning in 2012 when Xi Jinping came into power. The speed and direction of Xi Jinping’s new Long March will determine whether or not China and a reactive rather than proactive US are left behind on world’s road to economic progress. 💬


6 .:

§ Policy & Micro

The Volatility Curveball→

^{The search for yield gives way to the search for stability.}

LYRIC HUGHES HALE • MAY 10, 2024

---

Yesterday was also a good day for global markets. However, over the past week, panic began with a dramatic plunge in Japanese and US equities. Most market commentators agree that there is no single, easily identifiable explanation, and none are sure that this episode of volatility is over. The Bank of Japan had long been expected to normalize interest rates. A weaker than expected US employment report might have fueled stock market gains, not losses, since it could signify lower interest rates sooner. Another factor might have been rumors of war between Iran and Israel. Here is more detail on three possible causes: the US jobs report, the yen carry trade, and unfolding geopolitical events. 💬

See all ❯

↪: Who’s on econVue

7 .:

VOICES

Marsha Vande Berg →

^{📍San Francisco}

---

is a thought leader with expertise in international business, public administration and global affairs. Her emphasis is Asia Pacific markets, governance, sustainability and technology. She has written extensively about the Indian economy.

• Focus

  → Insights about macro drivers and markets

  → Asia Pacific as growth center

  → Transpacific linkages and governance


8 .:

VOICES

Richard Katz→

^{📍New York}

---

writes about the Japanese economy as New York Correspondent for Weekly Toyo Keizai of Japan, Japan Economy Watch, and is the author of a new book, The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future (Oxford University Press).

• Focus

  → Japan’s economy

  → Japanese politics
  → U.S.-Japan relations
  → Innovation policy

Who's on econVue? ❯

🖊️ Vue⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼
⇣

econVue contributors share their latest thoughts on the global economy and their experiences covering it

⫶

9 .:

---

India’s New Budget Targets Foreign Investment →

AUG 13, 2024

---

⫶

10 .:

---

Whither the Yen →

AUG 8, 2024

---

See all ❯

📌 Notes

11 .:


12 .:

13 .:

14 .:

15 .:

16 .:

See all ❯

See past editions ❯

Read more

In less than three weeks, the Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago, only a few blocks away from me. It is bound to be chaotic for everyone in my neighborhood. At the same time however, there are two large scale development projects happening nearby. A new $7 billion dollar redevelopment project has been announced for 2025 in the area around the United Center, where the convention is taking place. Further south on the lakefront, ground breaking has already begun for a massive investment in a quantum computing campus, the largest in the country. The Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park will be developed at the former US Steel South Works site. So my point is yes, we will see a lot of turbulence short term. But longer term, follow the money, and technology always wins in the end. The “perennial gale of creative destruction” continues at full force.

It has been a busy summer for US politics, but also for our editorial team at econVue. In this re:Vue you will find overviews of three Hale Report® podcasts, articles, and Vuepoints by old and new contributors. In addition we hosted two expert panels this summer. The first was a discussion on virtual payments and digital currencies. The second covered the Indian election results. We plan to continue sharing content related to geopolitics and technologies that impact the global economy.

Our readers have no doubt noticed our increased focus on South Asia. There has been an avalanche of commentary on China’s Third Plenum, the meeting that lays out the central government’s plans for economic growth and development. However, none of the hoped for fiscal and political reforms were announced—and none are on the horizon. Moreover, regardless of which party wins the US elections in November, Beijing is facing stormy weather ahead.

While China will obviously not disappear, India’s population will have exceeded the population of China and the US combined by 2040. And India is just one country in South Asia. However demographics alone will not drive economic growth, especially if job creation does not keep pace. Investment, technology, and innovation are also critical, which brings me back to geopolitics.

My article The Hard Limits of Economic Statecraft received a lot of feedback. One response posed the question, will unprecedented levels of US and EU sanctions motivate China to not only develop its own trade bloc and alternative financial infrastructure, but spur it to create brand new technologies along a path disconnected from the G7 countries? The answer is clearly yes, that is already happening. Even though global trade flows are, for now, continuing apace.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

re:Vue is all our newsletters condensed into one convenient, unobtrusive e-mail, prefaced by our editorial commentary. You can select exactly which econVue newsletters you receive or omit, including this one, at any time in your econVue account.

Available August 1st: econVue+Chat, for annual econVue+ subscribers only.

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1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT ^® ⸱ Episode 58

David Sanger—Washington Struggle Sessions and the New Cold Wars →

▶ Listen now (1:04:02)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUL 12, 2024

---

My guest for the 58th episode of The Hale Report™ is journalist David E. Sanger. His new book New Cold Wars, China’s Rise, Russian’s Invasion and America’s Struggle to Defend the West is an insider narrative of how we got from the end of one Cold War, to the beginning of another. It’s not just about policy, but about how policy is made. 💬


2 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT ^® ⸱ Episode 57

Yohan Iddawela—Our Big Blue Marble: Geospatial Data and Economics →

▶ Listen now (48:52)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUN 26, 2024

---

My guest for our 57^th episode is Yohan Iddawela, data scientist and LSE-trained economist. Yohan brings a wealth of experience from his time at the World Bank and his current research at the Asian Development Bank in Manila. An Australian who has lived around the world, Yohan offers unique insights into the intersection of geospatial data science and economics. This technology represents a revolution in economic science. 💬


3 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT ^® ⸱ Episode 56

David Malpass—Can Better Policies Mitigate Risks to Global Growth? →

▶ Listen now (1:02:44)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUN 26, 2024

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My guest for the 56th episode of the Hale Report is David Malpass, Former President of the World Bank Group, Under Secretary of the US Treasury, and leading Wall Street economist. He is an advocate for equitable development and sustainable global growth. He sees two obstacles to achieving a more prosperous world: poorly thought-out policies, and misallocation of capital. His strong view is that recent policy choices in Washington do not favor growth—and that we could be facing a fiscal cliff in 2025. 💬


4 .:

👥 PANELS

Recap: The Future of Money →
^{The impact of new financial technologies and digital payment regulations}

COLLIN CANRIGHT AND DANTE DISPARTE • JUL 16, 2024

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If you missed our discussion on July 16^th, we invite you to listen to our panel on digital payment systems and cryptocurrencies. The panel featured econVue contributor Collin Canright and special guest Dante Disparte, CSO of Circle. 💬


5 .:

👥 PANELS

Recap: The Indian Election →
^{Implications for global investors and policymakers}

MARSHA VANDE BERG AND SALIYA WEERAKOON ⸱ JUN 7, 2024

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More than 640 million people voted in the Indian election over a period of 40 days in record-breaking heat. That is an incredible number for a system that requires voter identification. The results surprised most observers, but not our panelist Saliya Weerakoon, who spent two weeks in India prior to the polls. He was joined by fellow econVue contributor Marsha Vande Berg, who explained why she thinks the results represent a positive income for India, and for foreign investors. 💬

↪: Latest articles


6 .:

§ Policy & Micro

Shifting Forces Behind Yen Depreciation: From Jay Powell to Mrs. Watanabe →
^{Why some experts predict the yen could weaken to 170}

RICHARD KATZ ⸱ JUL 19, 2024

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“In recent months, the driving force behind the weakening yen has shifted from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to “Mrs. Watanabe.” The latter is the nickname given by traders to the proverbial Japanese housewife who oversees the family budget and manages its investments. And quite a shift it is.”


7 .:

§ Regional

India’s Dynamic Growth Story →
^{The importance of Foreign Direct Investment to realizing economic potential}

MARSHA VANDE BERG ⸱ JUL 15, 2024

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“Can India’s dynamic growth story turbo-charge critical inflows of foreign investment needed to fuel development, create quality jobs, and boost a green transition, in a region that has already had this year record high temperatures and some of the world’s worst air quality?

Recent indicators suggest the answer may well be a resounding yes despite the mixed picture painted for foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio inflows (FPI) over the last two fiscal years.”


8 .:

§ Conflict

The Hard Limits of Economic Statecraft →
^{The economic intersection of the world}

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ JUN 30, 2024

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“Economic statecraft is just another name for economic warfare, which has seldom been a viable policy to prevent conflict. Sometimes, there are no substitutes for diplomacy, no easy outs. A good question to ask is what a world without trade barriers would look like. What do we mean by fair trade, now that international institutions such as the World Trade Organization are not functioning as they were intended—these are all subjects worth exploring in the midst of political changes in the G7 countries in 2024.”

See all ❯

↪: Who’s on econVue

9 .:

VOICES

Collin Canright →

^{📍Chicago, IL}

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Collin Canright is Editor and Publisher, FinTech Rising, Co-founder, Chicago Payments Forum, and Managing Editor of The Journal of Electronic Commerce. As principal of Canright Communications, he coordinates thought leadership, marketing communications, and software documentation projects, with an emphasis on Payments and FinTech communications.

He has worked with global financial institutions, hedge funds, FinTech startups, international IT firms, consulting firms, software developers, manufacturers, associations, and publishers. His articles and reports appear in leading financial publications, including American Banker, TabbFORUM, and Independent Banker, as well as his own FinTech Rising blog. Collin also produces payments events in Chicago through the Chicago Payments Forum.

• Focus

  → Financial technology (FinTech)

  → Payments

  → Treasury management

  → Media

  → Leadership

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🖊️ Vue⫶𝓹𝓸𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓼
⇣

econVue contributors share their latest thoughts on the global economy and their experiences covering it

⫶

10 .:

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Read the Signals →

JUL 21, 2024

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⫶

11 .:

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What if Everything You Know About Inflation is Wrong? →

JUL 7, 2024

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12 .:

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The Treasure of the Sierra Madre →

JUN 22, 2024

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13 .:

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The 2024 G7 Summit’s Expanded Brief →

JUN 20, 2024

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See all ❯

📌 Notes

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See all ❯

See past editions ❯

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This past week has certainly been momentous, as elections around the world roil geopolitics.

Recent events include the just-completed polling in India, the world’s most populous country, the announcement of a surprise contest in the UK set for July, and the historic election of the first woman as president of Mexico.

Especially fascinating to me is the likely contest for Governor of Tokyo between two female politicians in Japan. Incumbent Yuriko Koike faces her probable challenger Renho, who goes by her first name only, is half Taiwanese, and is the mother of a Japanese pop idol.

You may have noticed the recent focus on econVue on South Asia, with two new articles, and an upcoming panel on the Indian elections on Friday, June 7th. (All paid subscribers are welcome to join.) We will continue to increase our coverage of this critical region.

“An important shift is underway in the global economy: the relocation, diversification, and reshoring of supply chains… Nowhere is this more visible than the Indo-Pacific region.” – Asia Society Policy Institute

On a philosophical note, the compound volatility associated with so many elections in 2024, affecting more than half of the world’s population, has to be impacting global growth—regardless of outcomes. The reason is uncertainty, the bane of all businesses. Does China’s system, with no elections and closed door elite deliberations, have a comparative advantage? Or is the resulting lack of transparency in policymaking its Achilles heel, or in Chinese, soft rib (软肋)?

Do elections only work well in certain cultures and environments—and it has to be asked, is the US one of them? Monarchies, which have become largely ceremonial in the 21st century, do not seem to be a real alternative. However Curtis Yarvin writes that without continuity, there is no change, and says that it is time for a conversation about monarchy.

There are no easy answers to these questions, but change is in the air. I believe it is probably time to have a conversation about how to increase stability and national unity without sacrificing the vibrancy of democracy and a free economy.

It is interesting that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as part of his election platform, has proposed national service for 18-year-olds. China also revised its conscription rules this past April. The purpose in both cases is to increase national unity while strengthening security. I think we will see more of this type of mobilization, even without the immediate threat of war. By the way, the world’s largest army is in…Vietnam.

Only one thing is sure—the remainder of 2024 will not be boring, and we will have no shortage of topics to discuss on econVue.

–𝓁𝓎𝓇𝒾𝒸 💬

Editor-in-Chief

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1 .:

🎧 THE HALE REPORT™ ⸱ Episode 55

Christopher Wood—On Greed & Fear →

▶ Listen now (50:28)

Hosted by LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ MAY 18, 2024

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My guest for the 55th episode of The Hale Report™ is Christopher Wood, the author of Greed & Fear, the legendary financial newsletter he began in 1996 while at CLSA. His letter comes with an equally legendary caution against forwarding to others, adding to its must-read cachet. 💬


2 .:

👥 PANELS

Upcoming Panel: The Indian Election (Jun 7) →

Implications for global investors and policymakers

⧉ Background ⸱ ↳ Registration

FRIDAY, JUNE 7th @ 10 am CDT

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• Panelists


3 .:

👥 PANELS

Recap: China and Risk →

US-China trade, technology, and general economic conditions in China

LYRIC HUGHES HALE AND MICHELE WUCKER ⸱ MAY 16, 2024

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“Our panel on Thursday, May 16, 2024 featured Michele Wucker, who invented the term Gray Rhino to describe the risks we know exist, but choose to ignore. We discussed China and how to deal with geopolitical risks with a group of subscribers and colleagues, many of whom have significant China experience themselves.”

↪: Latest articles


4 .:

§ Conflict

The Ukraine War Has Gone Negative →

Scenarios around the possible fall of Ukraine

STEPHEN BRYEN ⸱ MAY 20, 2024

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"Strictly from a military point of view, the use of airpower is NATO’s best option for helping Ukraine. But NATO pilots would be flying against excellent Russian air defense systems and capable Russian fighter jets.  The real risk, of course, is that a NATO intervention would be the start of a war in NATO Europe and the possible destruction of European infrastructure, even cities."

If you want to know what is really going on in Ukraine, Stephen Bryen is an impeccable source of information and analysis. His full biography is below. Spoiler alert: he is very concerned about what is happening right now and does not see any possibility of a Ukrainian victory. 💬


5 .:

§ Regional, Energy

A Defining Moment in US-India Relations →

Seasoned diplomats recall the intricacies behind the 2008 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement

MARSHA VANDE BERG ⸱ MAY 10, 2024

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This article made me nostalgic for the days when diplomatics were diplomats, not unarmed combatants. This agreement helped to forge the US-India relationship. Marsha Vande Berg takes us through the history and the players. 💬


6 .:

§ Regional

South Asia’s Ascent →

The economic intersection of the world

SALIYA WEERAKOON ⸱ MAY 20, 2024

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“The story of South Asia's ascent within global corporate and political corridors of power—contrasting markedly with Western paradigms—is not merely about numbers or names. It is a profound narrative of resilience, culture, and transformation.”


7 .:

§ Regional

Is China Investable? →

Investment in an era of geopolitical rivalry

LYRIC HUGHES HALE ⸱ MAY 20, 2024

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“I have no way of knowing if and when China will cross a red line and ignite a hot war in Asia. However, I am concerned that by overestimating China’s strengths, and ignoring the country’s weaknesses, we will overplay our hand and perversely help to bring about the very outcome we fear most.”

See all ❯

↪: Who’s on econVue


8 .:

VOICES

Stephen Bryen →

📍Washington DC

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is a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and is a leading expert in security strategy and technology. Bryen writes for Asia Times, American Thinker, Epoch Times, Newsweek, Washington Times, the Jewish Policy Center and others.

• Focus

  → War and deterrence

  → Security strategy and technology

  → Military power


9 .:

VOICES

Saliya Weerakoon →

📍Sri Lanka

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is an experienced executive, entrepreneur, columnist, and public speaker with 30 years of professional experience in the Asia Pacific and Middle Eastern markets.

• Focus

  → South Asian politics and economics

  → Education and Health Care Policy

  → Strategic Marketing & Management

  → Digital Economy

  → Activist Philanthopy

  → Entrepreneurship & Investments

Who's on econVue? ❯

📌 Notes

10: ⤵

11: ⤵

12: ⤵

See all ❯

See past issues ❯

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This newsletter primarily focuses on issues that directly relate to international economics. But in this highly politicized global environment it is hard to ignore what has become an accepted standard of discourse: demonization of people we disagree with in order to discredit their ideas or actions. This strategy has been employed at least since Ancient Greece, during times of war and internal conflict.

It is a banal fact that political leaders of nations fighting wars habitually demonize the enemy in speeches and propaganda in order to strengthen the will and sense of purpose of their armies and civilian populations. In Thucydides’ History, the political and military leaders who are made to address the necessities of their war, use language which isolates and alienates the enemy and confirms legitimacy…

Yet enmities in this Hellenic war had particular consequences which Thucydides brought to the surface. Hellenic speakers who strive to demonize and conceptually alienate other Hellens are not reinforcing existing conceptual borders but making new ones. In other words, this kind of rhetoric is used to disarm both external and internal enemies. Thucydides and Internal War, Jonathan J. Price, 2004 Cambridge Press

Demonization is a form of propaganda, setting boundaries on dialogue. Labeling, and the misappropriation of language itself prevent rational discussion. Nuance is lost and all choices are binary. It is a tactic employed by both sides of the polarized abortion debate for example. It is one reason why we in the US have failed to reach a rational compromise after decades (as has been achieved however in Europe).

I won’t focus on Ukraine & Russia, on the grounds that this is an actual war and so name-calling is to be expected. However, here are some other examples of demonization, a form of populism that can lead to economic policy failures, sometimes stoking actual conflict.

1. Carbon-based energy. The mantra is that oil companies are evil, and electrification and renewable energy are the only paths forward. The reality, as Mark Mills has written, is that there is no such thing as a costless, infinitely renewable energy machine. One day those 1000 lb electric car batteries will wear out, and that is a problem. Yet numerous funds have bowed to perceived pressure and will not invest in the hydrocarbon sector. Why is this a problem? The future will be hybrid for decades, and it is critical that we invest in making the energy sources we are using today cleaner, cheaper, and more efficient.

   Switzerland is now considering limiting travel by electric vehicles in the event of a possible energy emergency. More perverse consequences could appear this winter in Europe. At their meeting two days ago, Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron were true copains except on one issue: the so-called Inflation Reduction Act which allocates $400B in support of green energy, disadvantaging oil and Europe, where energy resiliency and redundancy are key to literally keeping the lights on.

2. The demonization of cryptocurrency was recently given a huge boost by the spectacular failure of FTX, which unfolded in an environment of sustained regulatory uncertainty: Gary Gensler is on the menu for the next Congress. A number of older intellectuals have found new life by styling crypto and defi as Ponzi schemes. I won’t get into the details of that argument here, but suffice it to say that innovation in finance should be studied soberly and intensely. My prediction is that the financial system of the future will combine the best features of decentralized and traditional finance to create both efficiencies and opportunities, especially for companies that serve as zippers between the two. Criminals exist in every sector, but criminalizing crypto will only drive it underground, and if you understand the technology you will know that it is too late to eliminate the Internet of money. Nothing lasts forever, not even central banking. The Federal Reserve is only 110 years old. We were on the gold standard when I started college.

3. Speaking of the Fed. Everybody, from traders to devotees of defi, loves to hate the Fed. Although they might have failed to head off inflation, monetary policy alone is not a panacea. Is it surprising that people who model for a living had difficulty adjusting their models to a whole new set of circumstances due to Covid and an improbable war? No. Do I think they acted malevolently or selfishly? No. In fact, Jay Powell seems to be moderating his stance based on current data and global events which are beyond the control of the Fed. It is one of many levers in the global economy.

4. China. If there is one imperative that unites both Republicans and Democrats in Washington it is that “we have to do something about China”. As the US has slipped on metrics such as educational attainment and defense prowess, policymakers urge us to reshape our national priorities based on competition with an “unstoppable” China. With or without us, China faces a series of urgent challenges: economic, demographic, the environment, and public health, especially over the next few months. Shouldn’t we be forging national priorities based upon our own values? The moment for a Sputnik-type revival is long past and in fact is being led by politicians who came of age in that long-ago era. The US shines brightest when we lead by example.

5. Foreign Policy. A key tool of American foreign policy since the Vietnam War has been regime change, which is yet another form of demonization. The naive belief that by getting rid of (fill in the blank dictator) a country would become a friendly democracy has surely been discredited after failures in Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea, among many others. What is needed: diplomacy, engagement, and ethical compromise, the really hard work. Not as much fun as calling someone crazy or demonic so you are justified in eliminated them.

6. Tech companies. How can we fault China’s policies to reign in their tech companies, and seriously contemplate doing similar things to our own? Depending on your politics, companies from Twitter to Apple to Google to Amazon to Microsoft are seen as doing evil, even as we depend upon their products and services on a daily basis. Tighter regulation, taxation, and anti-trust actions are likely to bloom in the new Congress. No doubt there have been errors, but we should be careful of eating our own young as the Chinese government has done, eviscerating its world-class technology companies and their founders, serving the government’s purpose rather than the market’s. Obviously regulators are always trailing innovators, and this is a constant source of tension, but overshooting here is an underappreciated risk to American economic vibrancy.

All this is said in support of thoughtful words and measured reflection, however actions can also be effective in correcting government failures. This weekend brings the very good news that Iran has abolished its morality police, and China is easing Covid restrictions. Although China commentators such as Bill Bishop are urging caution in terms of linking the protests to the easing of lockdowns, perhaps all that really matters is that the protestors think that they worked.

Please watch for our next podcast, with Shannon O’Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations. Ian Bremmer calls her new book on globalization “an important corrective to a broken public policy debate.” An expert in Latin America, she believes that the next chapter of global trade is re-regionalization. It is the kind of iconoclastic thinking that we always try to bring to our subscribers, including the links below to the work of our EconVue experts.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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It was a particularly gloomy September, but when sentiment turns this sour, it starts to feel overdone. Investors are asking, when will it ever end? First Covid, and now this?

As the weather turns chilly, I’ve been thinking back to my (long ago) figure skating days. One of the most basic elementary moves on the ice is called a change of edge. You begin to trace a circle with one edge of a double blade, and then while on the same foot shift to the other edge to trace a new circle in the opposite direction. At the moment of the change of edge, the skater is straight and motionless-it’s all about balance. Has the global economy reached that moment? The risk of course is that we don’t head in a new direction, but take a nasty fall.

Since we all know the reasons behind the current pessimism, what are the possible events that could turn things around?

1. Something breaks, and the Fed sees that it has gone too far and slows or reverses course. A chorus of economists including Paul Krugman and Claudia Sahm have warned against the speed if not the direction of their response. Their basic argument is that inflation was not caused by monetary policy, and therefore cannot be eradicated through interest rates. A pivot in my view is a highly like event.

   The question is, how soon? Jay Powell might be attempting to emulate Paul Volcker, but in today’s environment of interdependent financial systems and much higher overall debt post-pandemic, a Volker-like response is unwise if not catastrophic, and could trigger a global financial crisis.  Focusing on US price levels and employment in this instance of inflation is misguided; Covid has tainted these lagging indicators. Money supply however, has leveled off in 2022 signaling a possible economic slowdown.

2. Data is revised or is suddenly more favorable and the Fed puts on the brakes. Again, this will happen sooner or later, the question is merely when, and why.

3. Politics wins. People and enterprises have already been through so much because of Covid that it is hard for bureaucrats to ask them to go through another round of hardship.  This is what is happening in Europe with energy prices, while the Fed is hoping to create higher unemployment in the US. Political opposition is going to swell dramatically this winter. As Robert Madsen, my colleague at Hale Strategic has said, the desire for a return to normalcy and the status quo is a powerful force. Underlining this point, seventeen US states have already put inflation support policies in place, which are simulative.

4. China roars back. It is now the slowest growing economy in Asia, but once it is unshackled by the end of Covid quarantines and its 5-year political cycle, Chinese economic growth could rebound. Other Asian economies are already in full recovery mode according to a new report by the IMF. As a a result of the Asian Financial Crisis, most have healthy forex reserves. Major assumption: China will be able to handle its current debt as well as currency issues and restructuring of its property sector. Based on past performance, there is more than a 50/50 chance this scenario will play out. Hong Kong will remove all restrictions for international travelers this month. More will follow.

5. The war in Ukraine ends and Europe revives. This scenario gives me the most hesitation. A year ago I would have thought this war was totally impossible. But it will end eventually, and will be followed by a Marshall Plan, preferably led this time by Germany rather than the United States. A rebound in economic growth will occur.

My conclusion is that I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve will be able to continue at its current pace, and that a pivot might happen a lot faster than is expected. Markets were more buoyant on Monday, but we have become inured to volatility so I don’t think this one-day uptick supports my thesis- yet. My point is that we should be prepared not only for negative outcomes, but for positive surprises.

Skaters use the momentum of edges to launch either a jump or a spin. Hopefully the world will land a perfect jump rather than enter a death spiral.

Japan, ever the exception and a monetary tightening holdout, has been left out of this letter, but here too the prospects for revival are good. EconVue will be hosting a panel discussion on the Japanese economy later this month with Richard Katz, John Greenwood and others, TBA.

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Preparing for a business trip to Washington, I began to sort through clothing I have not worn for some time: suits and dressy dresses. As I pulled them out of the closet, I noticed some s…

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Almost exactly fifty years ago, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Philip W Anderson wrote an article in Science entitled More is Different. Just three and a half pages, the article explored …

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Most Russian experts and military strategists I follow doubted Putin would invade Ukraine. I agreed with their rational arguments, but here we are. I’m reminded of the Haruki Murakami no…

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In just a few weeks, the Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing. Both Japan and China were unlucky in their timing; these Games without an audience must be bittersweet for participants…

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