A Geopolitical Nightmare

What does the battle between Israel and Iran mean for the rest of the world?

❝Any diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem is dead in the water. —Karim Pakravan

The large-scale Israeli military operation against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities will have devastating consequences on the region’s precarious geopolitical equilibrium, as well as potentially destabilizing a global economy already under pressure. While it is early in the game, we can attempt to make a preliminary assessment of the situation:

• Iran’s nuclear program has suffered some damage, but is likely to survive. Since the exit of the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018 under Trump 1.0, the Iranian regime has significantly expanded its nuclear program, reaching 60% enrichment and reinforcing its nuclear infrastructure. Furthermore, the elimination of a few nuclear scientists is unlikely to have an impact on a well-established program.

• The attacks on Iran’s top military leadership and its military bases have put the armed forces in disarray, but once again are unlikely to have a major long-term impact. As a regular military force, the IRGC can replace its top command, as it has done in the past after the elimination of General Soleimani by the U.S.

• Any diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem now appears unreachable. Even before the Israeli attack, President Trump’s incoherent negotiating policy and Iran’s insistence on maintaining an enrichment capability had made a deal difficult to achieve. The Iranian regime is unlikely to believe the U.S. about any American involvement in the operation and will be unwilling to agree to further talks.

• Regime change is unlikely. If anything, the Israeli attack will cause the different factions within the regime to put aside their differences and unite in the face of a common enemy. Furthermore, while the regime is deeply unpopular within the Iranian population, Israeli attacks are unlikely to be welcomed by a population exhausted by economic sanctions, mismanagement, and repression.

• The Israeli operations are likely to fray— even further— Israel’s tenuous relations with the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. The Israeli attack could upend the modus vivendi achieved over the past few years with the Iranian regime, plunging the region into a period of turmoil and possible war.

• Israel has promised to continue its military operations against Iran. However, it is unclear if the country has the capacity to continue these operations while at the same time conducting operations in Gaza and Lebanon, and defending itself against Iranian attacks without U.S. assistance.

• The key question remains whether or not Israel’s strategy will ultimately draw the U.S. into the conflict.Once again, President Trump’s incoherent approach is muddying the waters. On one hand, Trump is praising the Israeli attacks while at the same time denying U.S. support or involvement. On the other, he is inviting the Islamic Republic to resume negotiations. Furthermore, it is clearly the case that Israel will not be capable of destroying Iran’s nuclear program without direct U.S. military involvement. Under any scenario, escalation will likely end up dragging the U.S. into conflict with Iran.

• Finally, the economic impact on Iran, the region, and the U.S. economy could be significant. We have already seen a sharp increase in oil prices, which, if sustained, would be another shock to the global economy already affected by the trade war. Higher oil prices would feed into inflation, adding uncertainty to any Fed response.

There are very few upsides to the Israeli military operation against Iran for any of the regional actors, including Israel itself. We are facing a geopolitical nightmare, so stay tuned.

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UPCOMING PANEL ON THE SITUATION IN IRAN: Monday, June 16th 4pm CDT

Dr Pakravan will be joining us for our panel for

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