Editor’s Note:
In this Vuepoint, Narimon Safavi looks past familiar political narratives about Iran and focuses instead on the economic pressures and strategic contradictions shaping the country’s current unrest. His analysis suggests Iran’s trajectory is neither sudden collapse nor stability, but a path that is yet to be negotiated.
As I may have mentioned before, when headlines emerge about Iran, a familiar cottage industry of commentary quickly follows—often political, frequently reductive, and shaped by outdated Cold War binaries. These frameworks obscure more than they explain. The recent protests and the ruthless crackdown by the Iranian government have brought the country to the forefront once again, despite an unusually crowded global news cycle in recent weeks.
So, with appropriate epistemic humility, I will try to shed some light on the current situation in three segments: the inside view, the global perspective, and possible trajectories ahead.
The Inside View
The economic devastation caused by prolonged sanctions, compounded by the recent twelve-day conflict with Israel, has triggered severe currency devaluation and inflation. Prices for basic food supplies are now changing daily. Businesses are unable to manage supply chains, while preferential access to discounted foreign currency for politically connected actors has distorted incentives and deepened public resentment.
The recent uprisings began in Tehran’s bazaar district, the historic heart of Iranian commerce. When the price of the US dollar rose by approximately 70 percent in just two weeks, price instability rendered ordinary transactions nearly impossible.
The accumulation of political frustration, including recent waves of executions of political prisoners and the absence of economic prospects for young people, has turned the country into a powder keg.
Slogans expressing economic grievances quickly turned political, and in some cases calls for a return to the monarchy of five decades ago emerged. Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi publicly called for further demonstrations. The regime responded by intensifying its crackdown on protests while cutting off internet access. As of this writing, more than protesters are feared dead, and executions of many more have been threatened.
This is a disheartening development given the hope generated by the women’s movement: the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, which had raised expectations for gradual gains in civil liberties.
The Global Perspective
When reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian took office in 2024, he had already called for negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program and quickly engaged both Washington and Brussels in discussions aimed at reviving a deal.
By early June 2025, several rounds of negotiations had taken place, and reports suggested a potential breakthrough was approaching. The Israeli strikes on Iran began two days before the next scheduled round of US–Iran talks.
Inside Iran, interpretations diverged. Some argued that US engagement was a tactical ploy to lower Iran’s defenses ahead of an attack. Others contended that Israel was attempting to pre-empt a deal, fearing that the window to draw the United States into a confrontation with Iran was closing. Both Tehran and Washington continue to state their readiness to resume negotiations, but no tangible progress has yet emerged.
Over the past three years, Iran has also shown tentative signs of regional re-engagement, including rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and economic collaboration with China on proposed infrastructure projects.
Iran is a natural economic partner for China, offering a critical land bridge for the Belt and Road Initiative that would make the project more visible and less dependent on Russia. China could theoretically reach European markets by transiting just three countries: Afghanistan, Iran, and Türkiye.
Russia and Iran are natural competitors in supplying energy to Europe and South Asia. Despite this rivalry, both countries have been pushed together politically by their shared antagonism toward the United States.
The war in Ukraine has created an opening for Iran to gain energy market share in Europe, yet it is widely believed that Russia benefits from Iran remaining isolated. At the same time, Iran continues to supply Russia with drones and military technology for use in Ukraine.
This apparent contradiction is difficult to justify on economic grounds. My hunch is that the strategic logic underpinning this alignment is increasingly fragile and may not hold much longer.
Prognostications
The Islamic Republic has survived popular uprisings before. This time, however, several key features differ. The traditionally stated commitment to non-violence and explicit calls for gradual reform are largely absent.
At the same time, there were signs of a possible off-ramp: limited concessions to the women’s movement, the election of a reformist president, nearly successful negotiations to ease sanctions, and Saudi Arabia’s interest in integrating Iran into regional economic strategies.
Importantly, a growing segment of Iran’s ruling class now views the country’s involvement in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria as costly strategic mistakes—billions of dollars spent and many Iranian soldiers lost with little to show in return.
Meanwhile, Iran’s National Security Council and Treasury have already ratified the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) framework, preparing the country for greater financial transparency and eventual global economic integration. The benefits of this move have yet to materialize, but the institutional groundwork is in place.
The attempt to repress the current uprisings may represent the hardliners’ final effort to retain control. The endgame is more likely to be negotiated than revolutionary, resembling a Venezuelan-style stalemate rather than a sudden collapse.
Historically, Washington has preferred a co-opted Iran capable of stabilizing West Asia in ways few regional powers can. By contrast, elements of Israel’s far right favor a fragmented Iran that can never pose a strategic challenge. Beneath shared hostile rhetoric, these visions are fundamentally incompatible.
Time will tell.
About Our Guest Contributor
Narimon Safavi is an Iranian-American entrepreneur, commentator, and well-known cultural advocate based in Chicago. A frequent analyst on WBEZ’s Worldview, Narimon contributes insights on global issues, including Iran and cultural diplomacy. He studied Chemistry and Philosophy at Illinois State University and serves on the Human Rights Watch Chicago Committee and as an ambassador for the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC).
A co-founder of Pasfarda Art & Cultural Exchange, Narimon has dedicated his career to fostering dialogue between the US and Iran. His diverse experience includes ethical diamond mining initiatives in West Africa, cultural diplomacy delegations, and leadership roles with organizations like the Gene Siskel Film Center, the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, and Chicago Public Media.
Narimon’s work spans media appearances on NPR, PBS, BBC, and Telecinco, as well as public speaking engagements on topics ranging from Iran to cultural policy. He is also an accomplished writer, contributing an essay on Iran to What’s Next?, published by Yale University in 2011. Fluent in Persian and English, with proficiency in Turkish and Spanish, he is currently developing COSMOPOLIS, an incubator for global cultural entrepreneurship.
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