👥 econVue Panel Recap: Global Tariffs Update (May 14, 2025)

Is the Worst Over?

This wide-ranging discussion revealed that the global tariff détente may be less a resolution than a pause—one shaped more by political maneuvering than lasting policy consensus. From China’s “long game” to Japan’s growing sense of betrayal, and from the complexities of US budget reconciliation to Taiwan’s emerging leverage, the panel made it clear: the next 90 days will be pivotal. Whether this moment reflects strategic recalibration or merely a tactical retreat remains to be seen. As Lyric Hughes Hale noted, “We would have to be surprised not to be surprised again.”

Take our poll below to let us know what you think!

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🌍 Voices from our Roundtable

May 14, 2025
Hosted by econVue

econVue hosted a discussion to assess the short and long-term impacts of the US-China tariff détente and broader trade dynamics. The US and China have temporarily agreed to lower tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers for the next 90 days. What can we expect? Does this mean that the risk of recession has dissapeared for 2025?

Our panel featured Karim Pakravan (Chicago), Michael Lewis & Gordon Parrish (Chicago) Eric Huang (Washington),and Richard Katz (New York), moderated by Lyric Hughes Hale.

Participants joined from around the US, and shared their insights on global economic trends, political risks, and trade realignments.

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↳ Key Takeaways

• Tariffs, Trade Wars, and a 90-Day Truce
  Karim Pakravan opened with a global overview, noting that although the US and China have agreed to a 90-day reduction in tariffs and non-tariff barriers, neither economy is out of the woods. He cautioned that fundamental disagreements remain, and that structural decoupling is accelerating despite temporary relief.

• US Strategy: Revenue and Risk
  Michael Lewis and Gordon Parrish (in discussion) explored how tariffs have become a political tool—used as much for revenue (e.g., reconciliation funding) as for international economic leverage. Lewis warned that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a surprise Federal Reserve rate hike. As Parrish said, ““Tariffs are being used not for trade policy, but to fund reconciliation—this isn’t Art of the Deal, it’s CBO Reconciliation 101.”

• China’s Patience, Taiwan’s Leverage
  Eric Huang highlighted China's long-term strategy, contrasting its saving-driven model with America’s consumer-led growth. He noted that the Chinese yuan’s softening could indirectly boost Taiwan’s purchasing power—potentially fueling defense acquisitions from the US.

• Recession Watch and Rate Pressures
  Gordon Parrish downplayed the idea that tariffs alone cause inflation, calling them short-term shocks rather than systemic drivers. He warned, however, of rising deficits and bond yields. Hale raised the prospect of a new Fed chair in 2026—Parrish replied that institutional inertia makes policy shifts unlikely, unless compelled by economic data.

• Strategic Signals in D.C.
  Eric Huang reported on high-level Taiwanese delegations arriving in Washington without major Chinese backlash, a subtle but notable shift in regional signaling. He speculated on the growing influence of disparate voices around Trump—ranging from establishment Republicans to Elon Musk—and how that may be shaping quickly evolving trade decisions.

• Japan’s Uneasy Position
  Richard Katz, recently returned from Tokyo, shared deep concerns from Japanese policymakers, who feel alienated by US unpredictability. He noted that Japan is actively reassessing its alignment strategies and may coordinate more closely with other democracies. A looming Upper House election adds further pressure.

• Supply Chains, Sanctions, and Tariff Confusion
  From university R&D defunding to proposed tariffs on Chinese-owned cargo ships, Katz criticized the incoherence of US trade policy. Hale asked about the auto tariff gap between the US and Japan—Richard argued it's irrelevant: “Detroit doesn’t make the kinds of cars Japan wants anymore.” He emphasized that modern supply chains are too complex for blunt-force policy.

• Closing Thoughts: Monitoring the Next 90 Days
  The group agreed that while the temporary tariff pause provides breathing room, deeper tensions remain unresolved. The next 90 days could prove pivotal—especially with elections in Japan, growing European skepticism, and India’s potential realignment on the horizon.

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↳ Panelists

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Eric Huang

^{📍Washington}

❝ For the Chinese, this is not an economic issue—it’s a political one. And they believe they hold the upper hand in the long game.

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Karim Pakravan

^📍Chicago

❝ There is a stunning reversal of the Trump administration’s trade and China policy… We heard decoupling, now we hear praise for Xi Jinping. That’s the main message I take from these talks.”

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Michael Lewis

^📍Chicago

❝“This is a total knockout. Nobody was anticipating this, and Trump has once again surprised people with his agility.”

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Richard Katz

^{📍New York}

❝Japan’s exports to China depend far more on China’s exports to the U.S. than on China’s internal growth. The supply chains are deeply integrated, and tariffs threaten to break them apart.

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↳Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

Lyric Hughes Hale

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💬 While the 90-day truce between the US and China may offer temporary relief, our panelists underscored that the structural tensions and strategic recalculations—particularly around Taiwan, Japan, and currency dynamics—will define the months ahead. econVue will continue to monitor these developments closely, bringing together expert voices to help navigate what lies beyond the pause.

📌 Stay tuned for follow-up programming on India’s position, the European response, and evolving trade frameworks in the Global South.

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