đ„ Panel Recap: Spring 2025 Global Economic Update
What's Next for the Global Economy?
đ Voices from our Roundtable
March 21, 2025
Hosted by econVue
As the world welcomed the first day of spring, econVue convened a panel of global experts for a far-reaching discussion on the state of the global economy. The panel explored everything from monetary policy to artificial intelligence, from demographic decline in Japan to strategic realignments in Asia and the Middle East. A pivotal question during this discussion: Is AI driving productivity or is its promise overhyped?
Moderated by econVue Editor-in-Chief Lyric Hughes Hale, our conversation included:
Richard Katz, Japan Economy Watch
Eleanor Hughes, non-resident fellow at econVue, Asian geopolitics
Narimon Safavi, NPR commentator on global culture and Iran
Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics, Northwestern University
Gordon Parrish, senior economic analyst at Freemarket, Inc
Paul Summerville, commentator on Canada and Japanâs financial industry
Mark Roeder, Author and head of strategy at Hale Strategic, AI expert
Collin Canright, Fintech Rising and Chicago Payments Forum
âł Key Takeaways
Japanâs Economic Realities
Inflation in Japan is driven largely by food and energy importsânot by robust domestic demand. Real wages are stagnant, and household consumption is falling.
(Richard Katz)U.S. Slowdown, Not Recession (Yet)
Despite worsening sentiment, a broad-based recession is unlikely without a trillion-dollar GDP contraction. Government expenditures and cuts are not reflected in GDP.
(Robert Gordon)Indiaâs New Strategic Posture
India is quietly favoring Russia over China on the global stageâreflecting a recalibrated nonaligned strategy.
(Eleanor Hughes)The Hidden Middle East Story
While headlines scream conflict, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China are building economic bridges, not walls.
(Narimon Safavi)AIâs Real Disruption Still to Come
Productivity gains from ChatGPT are marginal; real disruption will arrive with humanoid robots entering both homes and workplaces.
(Mark Roeder)Japanâs Demographics as Destiny
Japanâs aging population and declining workforce define its long-term trajectory more than any central bank action.
(Paul Summerville)AI in Payments: Proceed with Caution
AI copilots are replacing Google for many, but few are ready to let bots manage their bank accountsâyet.
(Collin Canright)
âł Featured Insights
âJapanâs inflation is misleading. Core prices are lowâthe real issue is stagnant wages.â
â Richard KatzâNo recession yet, but weâre in a slowdown. Sentiment has dropped sharply.â
â Robert GordonâIndia is recalibrating. Fewer Chinese delegates, more Russiansâit matters.â
â Eleanor HughesâThe real action isnât warâitâs regional economic integration led by China.â
â Narimon SafaviâChatGPT wonât change the world. Robots that fold laundry might.â
â Mark RoederâDemographics are Japanâs defining constraint. Itâs not about policyâitâs about people.â
â Paul SummervilleâAI is improving workflows, not just searchâbut trust in automation is still a major hurdle.â
â Collin Canright
⧠Recommended Reading
Robert Gordon cited his recent paper, How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators? NBER Working Paper, Oct 2024.
đ Panel slides presented by Richard Katz:
Richard Katz is also proud to announce the Japanese version of his book: The Contest for Japanâs Future.
econVue producer Sam Fu recommends this video on humanoid robots:
Lyric Hughes Hale referenced this data on mortgage refinancing:
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