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πŸ‘₯ Panel Recap: Spring 2025 Global Economic Update
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πŸ‘₯ Panel Recap: Spring 2025 Global Economic Update

What's Next for the Global Economy?

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Lyric Hughes Hale
Mar 22, 2025
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πŸ‘₯ Panel Recap: Spring 2025 Global Economic Update
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🌍 Voices from our Roundtable

March 21, 2025
Hosted by econVue

As the world welcomed the first day of spring, econVue convened a panel of global experts for a far-reaching discussion on the state of the global economy. The panel explored everything from monetary policy to artificial intelligence, from demographic decline in Japan to strategic realignments in Asia and the Middle East. A pivotal question during this discussion: Is AI driving productivity or is its promise overhyped?

Moderated by econVue Editor-in-Chief Lyric Hughes Hale, our conversation included:

  • Richard Katz, Japan Economy Watch

  • Eleanor Hughes, non-resident fellow at econVue, Asian geopolitics

  • Narimon Safavi, NPR commentator on global culture and Iran

  • Robert Gordon, Professor of Economics, Northwestern University

  • Gordon Parrish, senior economic analyst at Freemarket, Inc

  • Paul Summerville, commentator on Canada and Japan’s financial industry

  • Mark Roeder, Author and head of strategy at Hale Strategic, AI expert

  • Collin Canright, Fintech Rising and Chicago Payments Forum


↳ Key Takeaways

  • Japan’s Economic Realities
    Inflation in Japan is driven largely by food and energy importsβ€”not by robust domestic demand. Real wages are stagnant, and household consumption is falling.
    (Richard Katz)

  • U.S. Slowdown, Not Recession (Yet)
    Despite worsening sentiment, a broad-based recession is unlikely without a trillion-dollar GDP contraction. Government expenditures and cuts are not reflected in GDP.
    (Robert Gordon)

  • India’s New Strategic Posture
    India is quietly favoring Russia over China on the global stageβ€”reflecting a recalibrated nonaligned strategy.
    (Eleanor Hughes)

  • The Hidden Middle East Story
    While headlines scream conflict, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China are building economic bridges, not walls.
    (Narimon Safavi)

  • AI’s Real Disruption Still to Come
    Productivity gains from ChatGPT are marginal; real disruption will arrive with humanoid robots entering both homes and workplaces.
    (Mark Roeder)

  • Japan’s Demographics as Destiny
    Japan’s aging population and declining workforce define its long-term trajectory more than any central bank action.
    (Paul Summerville)

  • AI in Payments: Proceed with Caution
    AI copilots are replacing Google for many, but few are ready to let bots manage their bank accountsβ€”yet.
    (Collin Canright)


↳ Featured Insights

β€œJapan’s inflation is misleading. Core prices are lowβ€”the real issue is stagnant wages.”
β€” Richard Katz

β€œNo recession yet, but we’re in a slowdown. Sentiment has dropped sharply.”
β€” Robert Gordon

β€œIndia is recalibrating. Fewer Chinese delegates, more Russiansβ€”it matters.”
β€” Eleanor Hughes

β€œThe real action isn’t warβ€”it’s regional economic integration led by China.”
β€” Narimon Safavi

β€œChatGPT won’t change the world. Robots that fold laundry might.”
β€” Mark Roeder

β€œDemographics are Japan’s defining constraint. It’s not about policyβ€”it’s about people.”
β€” Paul Summerville

β€œAI is improving workflows, not just searchβ€”but trust in automation is still a major hurdle.”
β€” Collin Canright


⧉ Recommended Reading

  1. Robert Gordon cited his recent paper, How Do Electoral Votes, Presidential Approval, and Consumer Sentiment Respond to Economic Indicators? NBER Working Paper, Oct 2024.


  2. πŸ“Š Panel slides presented by Richard Katz:

    Katz Econvue March 21, 2025 Japan
    321KB βˆ™ PDF file
    Download
    Download

  3. Richard Katz is also proud to announce the Japanese version of his book: The Contest for Japan’s Future.

  4. econVue producer Sam Fu recommends this video on humanoid robots:

  1. Lyric Hughes Hale referenced this data on mortgage refinancing:

    Image

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