REMINDER 👥 Upcoming Panel: Post-Jackson Hole (Aug 25)

Now that the Fed Chair has spoken, what's next?

Grand Teton National Park, July 2025 (photo by Lyric Hughes Hale)

❗ Reminder to econVue subscribers to register for our next panel—link below

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A Policy Pivot after Jackson Hole?

❝ With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, 2025 Jackson Hole Speech

Convening just after the Jackson Hole Symposium, our next panel on Monday, August 25th will break down the key signals from Chair Powell and other central bankers. Will the Fed proceed with a rate cut in September—or hold steady amid mixed signals?

I just spoke with our panelist Mike Lewis:

❝ It’s not over yet. If we get a really firm jobs number for August, I think there is a 35% chance there will be no rate cut in September.

—Michael Lewis, Freemarkets, Inc.

What can we learn from the speeches, and the papers presented?

The topic at Jackson Hole this year focuses on employment: “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy”.

Join us on Monday to discuss what’s next

The panel will assess implications for US monetary policy, investment strategy, and macroeconomic coordination. Join us to unpack what’s next for the American economy as the post-Jackson Hole dust settles, and central bankers from around the world hang up their spurs, and head home.

As recent revisions to BLS data have revealed, labor markets have become more difficult to interpret, but there are now definite signs of softening. What about the impact of AI on jobs, and on productivity generally? Debt, at the national, local, and consumer levels is still on the rise. Cracks are emerging that raise questions about the direction of the global economy heading into the fall—and raise the probability of a rate cut. JP Morgan by the way is now saying that the Fed will have four rate cuts in 2025, beginning with the September meeting.

We'll explore how these market dynamics are shaping the Fed's policy calculus, as well as the political and market expectations surrounding its next move. How will Wall Street interpret Powell’s tone—and how will Main Street feel the impact?

Introductory remarks by our speakers will be recorded, but the Q&A session will be off the record.

↳ Time

• Monday, August 25th at 4 pm CDT

• Please register early—space is limited to encourage active participation.

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↳ Panelists

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On what the labor numbers mean for the Fed decision in September—with Gordon Parrish:

^📍Chicago

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On near-term trends in employment:

^📍Chicago

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On the longer-term impact of AI on employment:

^📍Sydney

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The bigger picture for the Fed and interest rates: why debt matters:

Special Guest: Michele Wucker

^📍Chicago

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Moderated by

Editor-in-Chief

Lyric Hughes Hale

^📍Chicago

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⧉ Background (recent articles by our panelists)

Recommended reading will be sent to registered attendees, including key presentations from the Jackson Hole conference as they become available.

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Mark Roeder:

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Karim Pakravan:

Global Financial and Emerging Markets Weekly Update

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Michele Wucker:

The Debt Gray Rhino Continued: Can We Grow Our Way Out?

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