The Race is On
Why Timing is Everything in the Strait of Hormuz
Saturday’s Kentucky Derby was thrilling, and will surely be a movie one day. The story of a horse and his female trainer, coming from behind to win despite 23:1 odds, reminds us that statistics never tell the whole story. Victory cannot be taken for granted, and defeat is never certain. Outcomes that reflect a lifetime of preparation are decided in minutes, often in moments.
Horses are beautiful, majestic creatures, but they can also be temperamental and unpredictable, which is what makes horse racing a sport. What matters is not just speed or strength, but pacing and timing. I have been thinking about the analogy to Iran, as we face the next few days of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. As Sherlock Holmes described in The Adventure of Silver Blaze:
❝ A horse is dangerous at both ends and uncomfortable in the middle.
—Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
Danger at Both Ends
This line offers a precise framework for understanding the current US–Iran confrontation. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz enter what may be their most consequential phase in coming days, in the run up to the Trump-Xi Summit next week. They have been buoyed by Putin’s announcement today of a ceasefire with Ukraine.
The Iran conflict has two clear points of danger, and both are already in motion. The front end is visible and kinetic. Direct military escalation has begun, with US–Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and infrastructure followed by retaliation across the region. A US ship has been damaged, and the UAE just issued its strongest warning to Iran to date.
The back end is slower, but no less dangerous. Economic warfare is already underway. Iran is constricting maritime traffic, the United States is applying sanctions and financial pressure, and markets are constantly reacting. In our globalized economy, what begins as pressure on one system is rarely contained there, and spreads across others. Middle powers, energy-dependent economies, and poorer countries are raising the alarm on critical supplies. Shortages are looming as a result of both the blockade and military attacks, within Iran and across the rest of the world.
The Uncomfortable Middle
Between these two ends lies what policymakers describe as a controlled space—a zone of managed confrontation in which limited strikes, maritime escort operations, and negotiations are meant to prevent escalation while preserving leverage. This is where the United States and Iran now find themselves, not full-out war, but not at peace.
The middle is not safe; it is merely less obviously dangerous. Miscalculation risk is highest here, signals are ambiguous, and each side is testing boundaries without clear rules. What appears to be equilibrium may in fact be fragility, and we are now skating on very thin ice. Anyone who assumes that the Iranian polity will quickly rise to challenge its leadership underestimates how technocratic dictatorships manage fear. Within Iranian leadership, self-immersion in their domestic politics and internal stalemate may encourage miscalculations about how much time remains before outside pressures force a decision.
China: The Dog That Didn’t Bark
Following on the plot of Silver Blaze, Holmes’ deeper insight was not about the horse, but about what did not happen: the dog that did not bark. That clue led to the solution of the mystery. In the current confrontation, that dog is China, whose silence has been striking. Despite deep ties to Iran and reliance on Middle Eastern energy flows, China has not visibly intervened, nor has it issued harsh criticism against America. This may reflect strategic agreement, calculated restraint, or a deliberate decision to wait for a moment when intervention would matter more. The most unsettling possibility is that China is waiting for a specific trigger. The best case is that China is quietly tolerating US efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities.
❝ I’ve been screaming at Iranians all day long.
––President Donald Trump, interview with Maria Bartiromo
That trigger may not be in the Strait of Hormuz, but in the broader strategic context, including next week’s meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing. A summit between the two leaders, coming at a time of heightened tension, could redefine boundaries across multiple theaters. China could signal restraint and position itself as a stabilizing force, or leverage US distraction to press its own strategic interests, such as chips and Taiwan. With more than a billion barrels of oil in its reserves, it can bide its time. In the meantime, shots were fired again near the White House today, a little more than a week after an assassination attempt. It is hard to imagine what the Chinese, or the Russians make of this, but it does not strengthen the US position. The odds are lengthening that the trip could be cancelled.
Stamina & Control
My grandparents went to Kentucky each May for the Derby, and this year my mother and I attended a watch party at the Union League Club here in Chicago. It brought back another world—Colorado in the 1950s and 60s—where horse racing and figure skating intersected in unexpected ways. Serious figure skaters, including my mother, moved to Colorado to train. Olympic gold champion Sonja Henie, and World Championship silver medalist Hedy Stenuf, both became involved with race horses there. Stenuf, who was also my godmother, ran a skating school while she raised six children. An Austrian refugee whose competitive career was cut short by the war, she famously returned to the ice two days after giving birth.
My mother followed in her footsteps, and continued to teach skating while having five children. Even now, at ninety-three, she is still working. What united those worlds of racing and skating was stamina, speed with grace, and the ability to endure.
There is no doubt, given the past 47 years, that the Iranian people can endure the harshest of conditions, allowing their leaders to play for even more time. The rest of the world, however, is less accustomed to deprivation, and less practiced in endurance. The field has widened; there are many more horses in the race now.
Iran: The Human Reality
My mother is also the reason we moved to Iran, although there was no skating rink. She was drawn to adventure and persuaded my father, a journalist, to join the Foreign Service. Our family has of course been thinking of Iran and of dear lifelong friends there and around the world in light of the current conflict. I realize that what we miss is not just a place, but a time that simply does not exist anymore. We can never go back.
The damage is immense. It is estimated that Iran has lost one million jobs in over the last two months. Businesses cannot operate due to lack of supplies and raw materials. The rest of the world is impacted as well; fertilizer is a case in point. A significant share of globally traded fertilizer moves through the Strait, and disruptions are already affecting supply and pricing. In parts of Africa, for example, where planting cycles depend on timely delivery, shortages today translate directly into reduced yields months from now. Iran is also a mineral-rich country, with significant copper, zinc, iron ore, steel, barite, gypsum, strontium, and other non-fuel mineral resources which have yet to be fully exploited. Iran is not only an oil chokepoint. It is a rich land whose young people have lost hope.
The economic strain and opportunity loss is real, but when will it become unsupportable not just within Iran, but for the rest of the world? The answer may come sooner than we think. And the end result? When everything collapses, the country’s economy will require significant reconstruction, by the Iranians themselves, and likely the US or China, and the other 14 nations that have been drawn into the war. One barrier to an end to the conflict could be Iran’s fear that it will be asked to pay reparations to the other countries in the region it has attacked.
The next few days matter. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz could produce a temporary de-escalation, but a miscalculation could push the conflict toward direct escalation. Continued economic pressure could deepen internal strain within Iran, prolonging the standoff while increasing instability. The question remains whether China will continue to remain silent, or whether a shift in conditions will prompt it to act. The upcoming Trump-Xi Summit could be a turning point in this war.
💬 The post parade has begun. Options are narrowing, and the field is committing to the course ahead.
Post Time
The race is on. The dangerous ends are real. The middle might feel manageable, but the status quo cannot continue. The post parade, when the horses leave the paddock and head to the starting gate, has begun. Options are narrowing, and the field is committing to the course ahead. There will be some last-minute scratches, but we know who will be on the field. No one can predict who will win or show with certainty.
President Trump may want the race finished by the 250th anniversary celebrations, before the midterm elections. The rest of the world cannot wait that long. Events are already in motion.
Lyric Hughes Hale
Lyric Hughes Hale serves as Editor-in-Chief of Econvue, which publishes a newsletter, econVue+. She hosts The Hale Report, a podcast series on global economics. She is Director of Research at Hale Strategic
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Sources
Iran prevents entry of US warships into Strait of Hormuz, Navy says, Reuters, May 4, 2026.
US says it sinks Iranian small boats, shoots down missiles, drones as it opens Strait, Reuters, May 4, 2026.
US pushes to reopen Strait of Hormuz as Iranian attacks on UAE strain ceasefire, Associated Press, live updates, May 4, 2026.
Putin, Zelenskiy proclaim rival ceasefires around Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, Reuters, May 4, 2026.
Trump says harsh rhetoric toward Iran is necessary: “They don’t understand being nice”, Maria Bartiromo interview, Fox Business, April 2026.
Donald Trump Explains Why His Voice Sounds Different, Newsweek, April 17, 2026.
‘Zero income’: Job cuts add to misery of war for Iranians, The National, April 22, 2026.
War And Internet Blackout Push Iran’s Economy Even Further Toward The Brink, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 4, 2026.
African governments need to take urgent action on fertiliser shortages, African Development Bank, April 2026.
From Hormuz to the Sahel: A Fertilizer Shock, and a Maghreb Solution, Middle East Institute, May 2026.
IMF chief Georgieva warns of ‘much worse outcome’ if Middle East war drags into 2027, Reuters, May 4, 2026.
China, the United States, and Japan hold most strategic oil reserves, US Energy Information Administration, April 20, 2026.