The Ukraine War Has Gone Negative

Scenarios Around the Possible Fall of Ukraine

Stephen Bryen: The Hale Report Ep. 53

A Failed Offensive

A year ago, had you asked anyone in NATO, or in the Pentagon, they would have told you Ukraine was poised to win its war against Russia.  NATO nations spent months arming and training twelve Ukrainian brigades, the best of their best, to break Russia's chokehold on the southern area of Ukraine known as Zaphorizia. The plan was to isolate Russian forces from Crimea, leaving only the Kerch Strait bridge to connect Russia to the peninsula. That would be followed by a clever NATO plan to destroy the bridge, positioning Ukraine to take back Crimea from Russia while regaining ports on the Azov Sea.

Shades of Baldrick and his cunning plan

The offensive was extensively gamed by the US and NATO.  Attack scenarios were tested using the most advanced computer simulations.  NATO-trained brigades were given the best weapons, including top-of-the-line Leopard tanks and American Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles.  The US and other NATO countries provided up-to-the-minute intelligence, hovering radar and spy planes over the Black Sea capable of watching the battle unfold and coordinating targets for Ukraine's artillery and rockets. Some of America's most advanced weapons, including HIMARS, were positioned to knock out Russian command posts and forward positions.

The Ukrainian attack made some initial headway, but then started to stall.  The Ukrainians threw more men and more equipment into the fray, but at the end of the day (except for some minor gains), the Ukrainians never really got past the first part of the Surovikin line.  The Surovikin defenses were devised by Sergey Surovikin, a Russian general who had been in command of the southern area at the time.  

Despite losing thousands of men, they captured only one village, Robotyne.  According to Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Ukraine lost 66,000 men (killed and wounded) and more than 7,000 pieces of equipment in the Ukrainian counter-offensive (June-September, 2023).  We have no information on Russian losses.

Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov at the Vostok-2022 military exercise in the Russian Far East, September 2022

NATO's most advanced weapons were blocked by Russian weapons, including kamikaze drones and air delivered mines.  While the West came into the offensive with a decidedly negative, rather demeaning image of the Russian army, the outcome undermined those blithe assumptions.   Whatever problems the Russian army had in the first phase of the war were, more or less, fixed by June.  With better leaders and field commanders, and updated equipment and tactics, the Russians stopped the NATO-invented offensive.

By September, the great Ukrainian offensive was called off. The dance card flipped.