Unintended Human Capital Consequences

Leaders are human too

💬 The unintended consequences—positive or negative—of people simply being human should always be considered a given.
— Kathleen Graham

In today’s era of rapid geopolitical turmoil, it’s important to remember the enduring power of the individual to cause unexpected changes—both positive and negative—through their relationships, personalities, and information.

RELATIONSHIPS with other trusted individuals across the world who are well-known for their character, knowledge, and actions have always been instrumental in backchannel diplomacy and pragmatic geopolitical solutions. For example, Henry Kissinger championed detente with the Soviet Union, the opening of China relations, the “shuttle diplomacy” in the Middle East to end the Yom Kippur War, and the Paris Peace Accords that ended American involvement in the Vietnam War.

• Corporate boards worldwide often include individuals with deep understanding of different cultures and business practices. These relationships make working within rapid change do-able.

• Many savvy individuals maintain global networks, enabling then to confirm on-the-ground realities and assess actions they are considering—balancing opportunities with risk.

PERSONALITIES dictate likely behavior patterns. Think of Winston Churchill and how impactful his personality was on the outcome of World War II. Think of Nikita Khrushchev and John Kennedy’s personalities, their alternations between hardline and pragmatic detente stances that led to the very scary Cuban Missile Crisis and to its successful resolution, which is captured so well in Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow’s classic book Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Crisis.

INFORMATION “does not pass from the tentacle to the top of the organization instantaneously,” states Allison/Zelikow. Information also many times just doesn’t ever get to the top leaders OR others provide top leaders, consciously or unintentionally, with inaccurate information.

Case Study: The Cuban Missile Crisis

❝ There is no substitute for the personal element in negotiations, particularly when you are dealing with issues of such consequence.”

—John F Kennedy, (Press Conference, 1963)

One striking example of unintended consequences is how the US became aware that missile launchers were being installed in Cuba capable of reaching the US East Coast. The field agency responsible for the construction in Cuba had a directive from the top: “must be ready for possible combat” by a due date that they could only achieve if they ignored the intelligence agency’s directive to conceal their building activities. End result: to reach the goal of the top leaders, construction rushed the work day and night without using the netting/plastic covers provided by their intelligence arm. Russian leaders were unaware of the competing directives and unaware what the construction team decided to do in this situation, which enabled US satellites to see the unusual construction work in Cuba.

Also, on the US side, vital missed information almost created a separate disaster. U-2 aircraft were flying routine Arctic missions from Alaska to collect atmospheric samples of residue from Soviet nuclear tests. Because the alert level was raised when the US became aware of the Russian construction of the Cuban Missile base, all US fighter jets were automatically armed with air-to-air missiles carrying nuclear warheads with the sole authorization to fire those weapons under the control of individual pilots.

When one of the U-2’s accidentally entered Soviet airspace, Soviet MiG fighters were scrambled to intercept the US fighter jets—armed and able to deploy their nuclear warheads—to protect the U-2’s return. Thankfully, the U-2 returned to US airspace without incident.

When President Kennedy was informed of what had just occurred, he “broke the tension with an ironic laugh: “There is always someone who doesn’t get the word”. Yet despite the US Secretary of Defense’s order to cancel all U-2 flights after this first incident, “another U-2, following the previously established schedule, took off on yet another air-sampling mission from the same Alaskan air base.”

Conclusion

1. The unintended consequences, positive or negative, of people being human should be considered a given. Robert Burns’ quote, “The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry,” remains as relevant today as ever.

2. The possibility of “things going awry” is why establishing backchannel relationships with others who understand both cultures and situations is critical.

3. Prepare for surprises. Consider scenarios driven by key leaders’ personalities, and then develop alternate plans knowing that perception might differ from reality.

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