US Transition Concerns
Tempered Optimism
❝ America stands at a crossroads, where the choices we make now will define whether we embrace global leadership or retreat into harmful isolation.
Top Three Predictions
Economic Fragmentation: U.S.-China tensions and protectionist policies will exacerbate global economic instability, as highlighted by the Eurasia Group’s “Beggar Thy World” risk.
Leadership Void: The absence of credible global leadership will hinder efforts to address international challenges, threatening stability and cooperation.
Isolationist Policies: The Trump II administration may double down on isolationist strategies, including strict immigration controls and aggressive tariffs, potentially harming U.S. alliances and global trade.
At the dawn of a New Year, I remain an optimist although I am worried about America, our relationships in the world, the economy and our politics. The juxtaposition last week of the moving tribute paid by all of America to Jimmy Carter’s legacy of service and humility as America’s 39th president – and the pending inauguration of Donald Trump to a second, non-consecutive term in coming days brought my worries into sharp relief.
As a journalist covering Washington DC politics in the summer of 1979, I had watched Carter push and then fail to win the necessary Senate approval for the SALT II Treaty he had negotiated with then Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. He ended up pulling back on the US commitment when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan that Christmas Eve – and after Iranian students had stormed the US embassy and taken 52 Americans hostage that November.
Despite Carter’s failure to realize the détente he sought with the Soviets and in the face of the utter ignominy of Americans held hostage - ultimately for 444 days, Carter’s attributes of decency, integrity and his deeply held commitment to public service were intact, only to be burnished into legacy as the ex-president from Plains, Georgia. But during last week’s ceremony, those same attributes sharply contrasted with the brash unpredictability of the self-styled disrupter-in-chief. Trump. who will take the presidential oath on Jan. 20, participated alongside four other US presidents in the Carter ceremony at the Washington Cathedral.
I will hope my fears about the Trump II presidency are misplaced. In the meanwhile, I intend to watch closely what Trump intends for America’s commitments with treaty allies, friends, and trading partners – and then how Trump follows through. I will hold my breath when this self-appointed “tariff man” takes charge of the post-pandemic success story of the US economy along with its rapidly gathering fiscal storm. I will wonder whether he will deliver on his campaign promise of a show-no-mercy “immigrant exclusion” initiative along with draconian tariffs against China and long-standing allies and trading partners.
Will he succeed in securing a longstanding America First advantage - or will his initiatives push the US toward isolationism, harming business and investment in an unsteady global economy? I take note that “Beggar Thy World” ranks number seven on the Eurasia Group’s Top Ten Risks 2025, a warning that both the US and China are set to export disruption and short-circuit the global recovery, accelerating geo-economic fragmentation. Number two on the Eurasia Group’s List is the “Rule of Don.” Number one is the world poised on the brink of an era without credible leadership capable of driving a global agenda and maintaining international order. That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous” says the report.
So, as I watched last week’s television coverage of Jimmy Carter’s service in the Washington Cathedral, I couldn’t help but note that the three US presidents in the pew to Trump’s right and President Biden immediately in front all held their hands reverently over their hearts as Carter’s casket moved past them to leave the Cathedral. Trump sat passively, perhaps looking toward Jan. 20th.
Conclusion
The United States faces a pivotal moment as it navigates uncharted political and economic waters. The transition to a Trump II administration will test the nation’s resilience, alliances, and global standing. Whether this chapter leads to renewed strength or deepening isolation remains to be seen, but the world will be watching—and so will I. As Jimmy Carter’s legacy reminds us, true leadership is measured not by brash declarations but by service, integrity, and a commitment to the greater good. The coming year will reveal whether America can rediscover its footing and chart a course toward stability.
📍San Francisco