Who Loses in China in a War with Taiwan?
Not everyone inside the CCP is eager for conflict
❝ Beneath Xi Jinping’s tight grip lies a vast bureaucracy filled with people who quietly dread the costs of war.
When people in Taiwan look across the Strait, they often hear the voices of Chinese hawks. PLA officers talk about proving themselves in battle, nationalist influencers shout about “reunification,” and state-aligned scholars describe war as if it were inevitable. From a distance, it can feel like the whole system is preparing for conflict. Yet many Taiwanese see another side to the story. Inside the CCP, there are also groups of officials who would prefer peace—not out of sympathy for Taiwan, but because conflict would destroy their own interests.
The Economic Bureaucracy
One obvious camp lies in China’s economic bureaucracy. Ministries under the State Council, from Commerce to the National Development and Reform Commission, exist to keep growth and stability intact. If a war erupted, they would be left to pick up the pieces. Capital would flee, supply chains would collapse, factories would close, and millions would lose their jobs. These officials would shoulder the burden of managing chaos they never wanted, while gaining none of the political rewards that a military triumph might bring.
❝ From a distance, it can feel like the whole system is preparing for conflict. But many Taiwanese see another side to the story.
Coastal Provinces
Provincial leaders along the coast share a similar calculus. Governors and party secretaries in Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian have built their reputations on prosperity. Their economies thrive on exports and international finance, which would be first to collapse under sanctions. At the same time, they would be asked to support military logistics while facing unrest from citizens whose livelihoods had evaporated. For officials who climbed the ranks by delivering growth, war would risk erasing decades of achievement.
Wealthy Elites
Beyond the bureaucracy and provinces, China’s ruling class faces their own risks. Wealthy elites add another layer of resistance. Many princelings and politically connected families have stashed fortunes overseas. The Russia-Ukraine war showed how quickly Western governments can freeze or seize assets. As long as peace holds, these families enjoy influence at home and luxury abroad. Conflict threatens to strip away both, exposing hidden wealth and turning them into global outcasts. For this class, peace is not an ideal but a shield.
The Liaison System
There is also the political liaison system, including the United Front, the Taiwan Affairs Office, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Their mission depends on persuasion and soft power. War would render their work meaningless. They may not wield as much authority as the military, but together they represent a substantial bloc of officials whose very purpose rests on avoiding conflict.
A Fragile Balance
None of these groups are allies of Taiwan. Their commitment to peace stems from self-interest, not goodwill. They benefit from the current order and fear the risks that war would unleash on their careers, wealth, and institutions. That said, Xi Jinping has masterfully sidelined or intimidated most factions that stray from his agenda, leaving little space for open resistance.
For Taiwan, the lesson is that China’s leadership is not as uniformly hawkish as it often appears. Beneath Xi Jinping’s tight grip lies a vast bureaucracy filled with people who quietly dread the costs of war. Recognizing those incentives helps explain why Beijing can sound so aggressive yet stop short of action. And for those hoping to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait, those quiet fears within the CCP may be more important than the slogans shouted in public.
About the Author
Eric Huang
Eric Huang. is an expert in US-China-Taiwan geopolitics, strategic planning, and crisis communication. He works at the intersection of policy and technology, helping organizations anticipate risks and seize op…