Who Will Succeed Xi?
What the meetings at Beidaihe might reveal
Every August for decades, two meetings have taken place at resorts in opposite corners of the world, each with global implications. One is the Kansas City Fed’s economic symposium at Jackson Hole. The other is the meeting of China’s current and former leaders at Beidaihe, on the Bohai coast. Both are by invitation only. Selected journalists are allowed at Jackson Hole, but in China, observers must rely on subtle signs to discern whether or not a political shift has occurred behind closed doors. According to several reports, Xi Jinping may not attend this year and is expected to send a proxy instead—adding to the mystery.
Before Xi Jinping removed formal term limits in 2018, enabling his indefinite rule, there was a different kind of routine speculation around transitions, focused on the competition between rivals for the top spot. But while there is no set date for 72-year-old Xi to leave office, over the years it will become increasingly likely that he could become incapacitated, opening the door to a transitional leader, similar to the brief role played by Hua Guofeng as Mao declined.
Who could be the bridge to the next generation of Chinese leadership? In all likelihood, that leader is on this list:
🇨🇳 Politburo Standing Committee Rankings
20th Party Congress (2022–present)
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