Bigger Wars on the Horizon?

If diplomacy fails, four major flashpoints could trigger broader conflict

There are at least four major flash points visible in October 2024. Will they morph into bigger conflicts and, if so, how big? The outcome of each will depend on the ability of world leaders to manage tensions and prioritize peace, or otherwise find popular support in order to escalate longstanding disagreements. The impact on the global economy could range from negligible to historically unprecedented.

The four key conflicts are 1) Ukraine, 2) Iran and the Middle East, 3) Taiwan and the Pacific region and 4) North Korea. Let’s consider each in turn.

Credit: Michigan News, University of Michigan

Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is much more than a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.  It directly involves NATO which has taken a forward position, sinking billions into Ukraine and providing significant help to that country including command and planning support, weapons, and intelligence assets ranging from satellites to surveillance aircraft, as well as Human Intelligence (HUMINT).¹

Russia’s major goal is to turn Ukraine into a friendly, but largely demilitarized country. In Russia’s view, to do this a post-war Ukraine must not allow NATO to continue operations in the country, and Ukraine should not be offered NATO membership.

Ukraine is also a candidate for European Union (EU) membership, but there are considerable issues, mainly focused on Ukraine dumping grain in the EU, undermining European farmers.²

Ukraine is at least 80% dependent on NATO, especially the United States, to sustain its war and support its government.³  Ukrainian finances, such as they are, are a disaster and Ukraine cannot service its loans. If the US and EU fall behind in financial support to Ukraine, Ukraine’s government could collapse and its currency, called the hryvnia, would lose virtually all of its value.

Ukraine also has lost more than 75% of its electrical power system and it is unlikely that parts of it can be restored any time soon.  This creates a nasty situation as Fall turns into Winter, because many Ukrainians might not be able to heat their homes or use electrical appliances due to the widespread damage to the power grid.