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For a brief moment in early June, it appeared that things were slowing down a bit for the summer, after a very fast start to the year. The sticky reality of political and economic change had begun to set in. Elon Musk departed Washington and went home. Trade negotiations continued, but no breakthrough agreements emerged. Markets began to adjust. Jobs reports and inflation readings were looking strong.
Then, as many feared, the long-festering conflict between Israel and Iran erupted. The sheer amount of information and misinformation is almost impossible to process. It feels as though the atomic clock must be very close to midnight. No matter how this ends, we are now on a dangerous road, and should be deeply concerned about the potential for catastrophic accidents along the way.
Today, the US and Iran were supposed to be negotiating in Oman. Instead, missiles are flying.
To discuss what might be happening, and what it means for the rest of the world, please join us for a special panel discussion on Monday afternoon. The registration link can be found at the end of this email.
Happy Father’s Day to all the the dads out there! Could not resist, given the events of this weekend, adding this photo of my Dad, meeting the Shah of Iran in 1964.
In this wide-ranging conversation, Lyric Hughes Hale speaks with Deborah Wince-Smith, President and CEO of the Council on Competitiveness (compete.org) about the future of American innovation and the global race for technological leadership. Wince-Smith shares insights from her decades-long experience shaping US science, technology, and economic policy—spanning the Reagan administration to today’s shifting geopolitical landscape.
Topics Discussed
The structural pillars of US competitiveness, including the US national laboratory ecosystem
Strategic challenges posed by China’s state-led innovation model
Public-private collaboration in R&D and manufacturing
The rise of regional innovation hubs
The importance of restoring federal R&D investment
AUKUS and dual-use technologies at the national security frontier
This discussion revealed that the global tariff détente may be less a resolution than a pause—one shaped more by political maneuvering than lasting policy consensus. From China’s “long game” to Japan’s growing sense of betrayal, and from the complexities of US budget reconciliation to Taiwan’s emerging leverage, the panel made it clear: the next 90 days will be pivotal.
As Lyric Hughes Hale noted,
❝ We would have to be surprised not to be surprised again.
↳ Selected Quotes
❝ For the Chinese, this is not an economic issue—it’s a political one. And they believe they hold the upper hand in the long game. —Eric Huang
❝ There is a stunning reversal of the Trump administration’s trade and China policy… We heard decoupling, now we hear praise for Xi Jinping. That’s the main message I take from these talks. —Karim Pakravan
❝“This is a total knockout. Nobody was anticipating this, and Trump has once again surprised people with his agility.” —Michael Lewis
❝Japan’s exports to China depend far more on China’s exports to the US. than on China’s internal growth. The supply chains are deeply integrated, and tariffs threaten to break them apart.—Richard Katz
In the tug of war between the US and China, could the Hong Kong peg be weaponized? Can the Hong Kong dollar peg survive geopolitical weaponization amid U.S.-China rivalry?
We don’t think much about taxes, but we should. From the fall of the Roman Empire to the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, flawed taxation policies have often both precipitated and foretold national decline.
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